Price Predicts Pettitte Starts On DL

Ed Price, reliable writer at The Star Ledger, made his projections of the opening day roster today. As the starting rotation and position players portion are already clearly defined, it's of note that Price chose Ross Ohlendorf over Brian Bruney and selected Darrell Rasner as the bullpen's long man.

However, most glaring was Price's belief that Andy Pettitte would start the regular season on the disabled list:

In my scenario (strictly a guess), Pettitte stays on the DL and gets a minor-league start next week to build up arm strength. Igawa takes one turn and then goes to the minors when Pettitte comes off the DL.

The Yankees faithful would collectively **** a brick if the first week of the 2008 season saw Kei Igawa pitching in place of the reliable Pettitte. Last year saw Carl Pavano replace Chien-Ming Wang as the opening day starter. I think the Yankees are done with the impromptu pitching substitutions.

Chad Jennings of the SWB Yankees Blog agrees with Price and offers an interesting explanation of how Pettitte starting on the DL could help the Yankees:

It seems possible that Andy Pettitte could start the season on the disabled list. He would be eligible to return by next Saturday, meaning the Yankees wouldn't need a spot starter and wouldn't have to disrupt the rotation.

Wouldn't it make sense, then, to start Pettitte on the DL and keep Rasner, Traber, Bruney (or Ohlendorf) and Patterson in the big league bullpen? That way the team gets an extra arm for the first few games and gets to reward Patterson for his amazing spring. As a bonus, the Yankees get to see Patterson in an actual big league scenario. Seems like a win-win to me, but a case could also be made for keeping Ohlendorf over Patterson or for keeping Nick Green -- to help get through the suspension games -- or for simply keeping Pettitte active through that first week.

The theory makes sense, but I'm sure Yankee fans would much rather throw a healthy Pettitte on the mound and end the prognosticating there.

Verducci: Yanks Take East, Boston WC

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated offered his predictions for the upcoming season and surprisingly had New York winning the AL East with *gasp* Boston taking the Wildcard. From the article:

Division Winners: New York, Detroit, Los Angeles. (Last year's prediction: New York, Cleveland, Los Angeles. Not bad. The Yankees fell two games short of Boston, but qualified as the wild card.)

Wild Card: Boston. (Last year's prediction: Boston.)

East: Two GMs told me this is the year the Yankees don't make the postseason, one of them going so far as to say they'll finish third, behind Boston and Toronto. I'm not buying it. The Yankees have so much talent it would take a multitude of worst-case scenarios to cut them low: Andy Pettitte breaks down, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Hideki Matsui and, most critically, Jorge Posada all decline significantly because of age, and kid pitchers Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy aren't ready to carry a full season of New York's physical and psychological load. Is all of that going to happen? No.

Boston seems more prone to a fallback, if only because recent world champions seem to be handed a tax bill the following season -- and if it hits Josh Beckett, look out. Toronto is intriguing, but there's a huge difference between 87 wins and the 94 you need to play with the big boys in the East. The Jays are not in that weight class.

Looks to be a knock down drag out type of season in the AL East. Toronto's injury woes continue to saddlebag their chances of breaking into the top two in the East and the Yankees/Red Sox will be neck-and-neck all season.

Sporting News On The Young Guns

From David Pinto, comes an original in-depth analysis of life with [possibly] three young starters on a contending team. He prefaces his remarks with the fact that most teams who implement young inexperienced pitchers [YIPs] are "rarely successful." A "YIP" has not spent more than one season in the majors, has started less than 15 games and is 24 years-old or younger.

A team's winning percentage has little to do with the number of YIP starts. Clubs win with YIPs, and clubs lose with YIPs regardless of the number of YIP starts.

The four first-place teams -- the 1961 Yankees, the '70 Twins, the '76 Reds and the 2003 Giants -- all went the playoffs the year before, and each bolstered their staffs with good, young pitchers. Many consider the '61 Yankees and '76 Reds to be among the greatest teams of all time.

The '08 Yankees offer parallels with those two clubs: High-powered offense, rotation anchored by two veterans. This year's Yankees appear capable of having a top-three offense, and Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte are the experienced arms at the top.

Both conditions should benefit the YIPs.

That is why Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain can be the exception to the rule this season. With the their the Yankees can afford to let their big three develop. They only need to be good in 2008. There's time for greatness later.

A analysis of the 2008 Yankees without an overbearing sense of doom and gloom? Preposterous.

Breaking Down Santana

The NY Times has an original piece which examines Johan Santana's changeup. The photo above shows the difference in grip which batters must identify in order to decipher a 90+ mph fastball from an ugly swing at an 80mph changeup. Good luck with that.

Another Times article discusses the risk and reward of signing a high-priced ace such as Santana. At one point, the analysis of Baseball Prospectus' Nate Silver concludes Santana will miss one entire season due to injury during the life of his new record breaking contract. Silver also believes Santana will spend at least one season pitching at a well-diminished level of performance. Even with these predictions, employing Santana's dominance for three to four seasons seems worth the risk. And if any pitcher is armed with the ability to age gracefully, it is Johan with his consistent changeup.

Hoch On Spring Training

Bryan Hoch of Yankees.com offered some thoughts on Spring training, including the rotation, the bullpen and Joe Girardi. From the article:

Projected rotation:

1. Chien-Ming Wang, 19-7, 3.70 ERA in 2007
2. Andy Pettitte, 15-9, 4.05 ERA in 2007
3. Joba Chamberlain, 2-0, 0.38 ERA, 1 SV in 2007
4. Phil Hughes, 5-3, 4.46 ERA in 2007
5. Mike Mussina, 11-10, 5.15 ERA in 2007

The Yankees' plan all along has been to develop Chamberlain as a starter, where they believe he has ace-type stuff and can be what Josh Beckett has been to the Red Sox. Hitters barely even saw the changeup and curveball in Chamberlain's repertoire in 2007. If you think he was dominant for one inning, the Yankees feel he can be that good over six or seven frames.

He may love his 1980s movie T-shirts, but there's no DeLorean waiting to transport Mussina back to regain his velocity from years past. A rough spring could put Kennedy in the rotation and relegate Mussina to long relief

He goes on to rattle off some prospects to watch next season, including Humberto Sanchez, Alan Horne, Jose Tabata, Jesus Montero. Peculiarly, Hoch omits Hideki Matsui from his projected 2008 lineup, deciding to insert Giambi at DH and Shelley Duncan at 1B in his stead.

Prospect Corner: Phil Hughes

Here is an interesting in-depth discussion of Phil Hughes from WaxHeaven.com.

From the post:

Generally I don’t like to base prospect evaluations off of month-by-month stat analysis, but I think it is worthwhile to note that Hughes spent his summer bouncing between AA ball, AAA ball and the major league team after his early season leg injury, and it seems that he took a while to find his stride. His August numbers could be due to all that bouncing around.

Looking at his September numbers, I think we can begin to see what kind of potential Hughes really has. Though his strikeout rate dropped compared to August, he showed better control with only 10 walks and managed a 2.73 ERA. Of course, every pitcher is capable of having a good month every now and then, so I don’t expect Hughes to keep his ERA under 3.00 all the time. However, I think Hughes could be a good candidate for a sub-4.00 and even sub-3.50 ERA within the next year.

It is very likely that Hughes will be able to maintain a major league GB% close to 50%, and I think he could keep a K/9 rate of 7 or higher with a low BB/9 rate of less than 3.

If [minor league comparable] pitchers are any indication as to what we can expect from Hughes, I’d say that over the next 2 seasons Hughes will probably keep an ERA in the 3.75 to 4.00 range and then by the age of 24 or 25 we’ll begin to see him consistently post an ERA under 3.50 or better. As long as he stays with the Yankees and stays off the DL, I think he could win 15 games a year, and possibly 20 by the age of 25. If I was a Yankees fan, I’d be pretty excited about that.

Most of his predictions are reasonable, though any trade to Minnesota would deem it moot.