Prospect Corner: Phil Hughes

Here is an interesting in-depth discussion of Phil Hughes from WaxHeaven.com.

From the post:

Generally I don’t like to base prospect evaluations off of month-by-month stat analysis, but I think it is worthwhile to note that Hughes spent his summer bouncing between AA ball, AAA ball and the major league team after his early season leg injury, and it seems that he took a while to find his stride. His August numbers could be due to all that bouncing around.

Looking at his September numbers, I think we can begin to see what kind of potential Hughes really has. Though his strikeout rate dropped compared to August, he showed better control with only 10 walks and managed a 2.73 ERA. Of course, every pitcher is capable of having a good month every now and then, so I don’t expect Hughes to keep his ERA under 3.00 all the time. However, I think Hughes could be a good candidate for a sub-4.00 and even sub-3.50 ERA within the next year.

It is very likely that Hughes will be able to maintain a major league GB% close to 50%, and I think he could keep a K/9 rate of 7 or higher with a low BB/9 rate of less than 3.

If [minor league comparable] pitchers are any indication as to what we can expect from Hughes, I’d say that over the next 2 seasons Hughes will probably keep an ERA in the 3.75 to 4.00 range and then by the age of 24 or 25 we’ll begin to see him consistently post an ERA under 3.50 or better. As long as he stays with the Yankees and stays off the DL, I think he could win 15 games a year, and possibly 20 by the age of 25. If I was a Yankees fan, I’d be pretty excited about that.

Most of his predictions are reasonable, though any trade to Minnesota would deem it moot.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects

John Manuel, Editor-In-Chief of Baseball America, posted the Yankees top 10 prospects:

1. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
2. Austin Jackson, of
3. Jose Tabata, of
4. Ian Kennedy, rhp
5. Alan Horne, rhp
6. Jesus Montero, c
7. Jeff Marquez, rhp
8. Brett Gardner, of
9. Ross Ohlendorf, rhp
10. Andrew Brackman, rhp

[Joe] Girardi's Florida team was built around young pitchers such as Josh Johnson, Scott Olsen and Dontrelle Willis, and he'll have more young talent to work with in New York. Staff ace Chien-Ming Wang is coming off consecutive 19-victories seasons and is still just 27. Also, the Yankees are counting on Chamberlain, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy to claim rotation spots. That trio has undeniable talent, but also just 16 starts and 116 innings in the big leagues between them.

The farm system has made significant strides in the last four years, with improved talent allowing the system's domestic affiliates to combine for four first-place finishes, two league championships and a collective .597 winning percentage, the best mark in baseball. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer, who started running New York's drafts in 2005, has the budget to pick aggressively, and the Yankees regularly pay draft picks more than MLB's bonus recommendations.

Like other bloggers have noted, Mark Melancon, Humberto Sanchez and/or Dellin Betances have to slot in ahead of Jeff Marquez, Ross Ohlendorf, Brett Gardner.

Houston Chronicle: Clemens Files Suit

Clemens is Tough All Day and is suing for defamation of character.

In a defamation lawsuit filed Sunday night, Roger Clemens claims Brian McNamee, his longtime trainer and chief accuser of steroid abuse, was threatened with jail if he didn't connect the pitcher to steroids.

The lawsuit was filed electronically with the Harris County civil courts Sunday evening just before CBS locally aired Clemens' interview on 60 Minutes.

"I don't know if I'll ever get the naysayers back. I don't know what I'm going to get. Maybe some of my name back," a frustrated Clemens said Sunday. Clemens said this lawsuit will not keep him from testifying before Congress, which he plans to do without asking for immunity or invoking any rights.

He said/She said at its very best.

[Photo Courtesy of THESMOKINGGUN.com]

Callis: Halos Have Better Shot At Santana Than Yanks

From Chad Jennings' Blog:

Q: Hanks From New York, NY asks:
Is lester, Crisp Lowrie, Masteron too much for Santana? And who has the better offer on the table, the Sox or the Yanks offer that's rumored to be Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, 4th prospect. Thanks for the chat.

A: Jim Callis:
I don't think that's too much. From Boston's standpoint, you're upgrading Lester to Santana; replacing Crisp with Ellsbury; Lowrie has no place to play right now; Masterson is a setup guy who could start or close elsewhere. That's better than the Yankees' offer, though I would take Hughes over any of the guys in the Boston package.

One other thing from that chat, Callis said he thinks the Angels have a better chance than the Yankees of getting Santana.

Interesting . . . I still believe Santana heading to free agency or the Mets is a win in the Yankees column. Johan going to the Angels may be just as damaging as him joining the Red Sox given New York's inability to defeat LA in the new millennium.

Boston being in the AL East and having an unparalleled rivalry with New York makes my previous statement seem a little absurd. But, the Yankees problem has never been challenging for a playoff spot. Their recent struggle has been advancing once getting there.

Gammons and Clemens Are Buddies,McNamee Ordered Rocket Around

Pat Jordan of The Baseball Analysts website recounts his encounters with Roger Clemens. Most interesting was his description of a run-in which showed Clemens to have a slightly damaging relationship with ESPN legend turned Red Sox shill, Peter Gammons.

Later in the piece Jordan describes the relationship between Clemens and his trainer Brian McNamee, who seemingly ordered the Cy Young collector around like Angela Lansbury in The Manchurian Candidate. Apparently buttered baked potatoes are sacrilegious yet injections that eat your insides are fair game.

I had a chance to become friends with Mr. Clemens in 2001, when I interviewed him for a profile in the New York Times Sunday magazine. But, alas, our friendship did not take. Despite the fact that I, like Mr. Wallace, felt I too had been objective in my profile, Mr. Clemens did not concur. In fact, he called me up after the story appeared and berated me over the telephone.

When I asked him what he didn’t like about the story, he said, “I didn’t read it.” I responded, “Then how do you know you don’t like it?” He said he was told by his “friend,” and the co-author of one of Mr. Clemens’ books, Peter Gammons, the ESPN-TV analyst, that he should hate it. In fact, Mr. Clemens hated my profile so fervently that he had me banned from the Yankees’ clubhouse during the years he remained with the team.

I would later learn that one of the many things Mr. Clemens hated about my profile of him was my description of his fawning relationship at the time with his friend Mr. McNamee, who lived in the pool house of Mr. Clemens’ Houston estate. On the first day I interviewed Mr. Clemens in Houston I had dinner with him and Mr. McNamee at the most exclusive steak house in Houston. The bill was for over $400, which I paid. Mr. Clemens said, “I’ll get you tomorrow.”

The next day he bought me a taco at a Mexican Restaurant. But the point of my profile of Mr. Clemens was less about his parsimoniousness than it was his strange relationship with Mr. McNamee. During the dinner at the steakhouse Mr. Clemens asked Mr. McNamee for his permission to have a steak (McNamee nodded) and a baked potato (McNamee nodded again, but added a caveat, “Only dry."). The same scenario played itself out at the Mexican Restaurant. Clemens pointed to an item on the menu and Mr. McNamee either nodded, or shook his head, no.

First of all, what a douche. Clemens puts a $400 dinner on the sportswriter's tab and thinks buying a $4 burrito the next day is reciprocating. Combine that type of compensation with the cumulative effects of his intravenous use and that wife of his must be one unsatisfied Texan.

If Jordan's report is true - and why would he make up such an anecdote - Gammons takes a major hit. Every sports reporter will garner relationships with their subjects and sometimes even develop friendships after years of close observation. This is no travesty.

However, once you begin policing other writers who may have criticized an ally athlete, there is reason to be worried of how slanted that individual's reporting has become.

Since Gammons recovered from a serious health ailment, his Red Sox tilt has become impossible to ignore. Jordan's piece reinforces the idea of a transforming sports culture which encourages reporters to befriend - not belittle - their subjects.

Madden: Don't Give Pitchers Long-Term Deals

Bill Madden offers owners a warning before signing starting pitchers to big contracts. He cites names like Kevin Brown, Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton before unfairly including Mike Mussina on a list of unsuccessful signings. He also misspelled Mitch Hilligoss, proving Madden couldn't pick Alan Horne out from a class photo of kindergarteners.

Some poor pitching signings listed below:

Cashman: Three Penciled In For Pen

According to an Anthony McCarron of the Daily News, Brian Cashman intimated the Yankees currently have three definite bullpen pieces in Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins. We're talking about The Sandman, a Farnsworthless and a sixth inning reliever.

From the article:

"The pen is a work in progress," Cashman said. "We'll have a lot of competition in spring training. As long as you have quality competing for those spots, that's good. We have guys with a lot of potential. If they're ready now or later, we'll have to see.

"For the most part, we like the talent we have against the market at the prices the market is demanding."

Cashman said prized prospects such as Jeff Marquez and Alan Horne might be in the bullpen mix, along with Ross Ohlendorf, Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Steven White, Jeff Karstens, Brian Bruney, Chris Britton and Jonathan Albaladejo. Lefties Kei Igawa, Sean Henn and Chase Wright will vie for pen spots, Cashman said.

He forgot to include Mark Melancon, J. Brent Cox, Humberto Sanchez and most prominently, Kevin Whelan, who could be knocking on the major league door come May.

* The New York Post has another Cashman piece, reiterating his redundant but slick mantra:

Cashman Is Focused On Doing Job Not Keeping It.

Clemens and McNamee Have Odd Phone Conversation

This is a bizarre turn of events.

According to Newsday, Roger Clemens and his former trainee turned stoolpigeon, Brian McNamee spoke via telephone on Friday evening.

From Newsday:

In a surprising twist to their public war of words, Roger Clemens and his former trainer, Brian McNamee, spoke by telephone Friday night, Newsday has learned. It was their first contact since the Mitchell Report was released Dec. 13, and a person close to the situation described the hourlong conversation between the longtime friends as "emotional."

It is unclear whether Clemens or McNamee initiated the call, and attempts to reach representatives for both of them Saturday night were unsuccessful. Clemens and McNamee have been friends since 1998, when the two were together on the Blue Jays, and it was Clemens who got McNamee hired by the Yankees after he was obtained from Toronto at the start of the 1999 season.

But in the wake of the Mitchell Report and McNamee's damaging testimony, those years together ultimately may tear down Clemens and his Hall of Fame resume. Clemens has vehemently denied McNamee's allegations that the trainer injected him with steroids -- he'll do so again tonight on "60 Minutes" -- and the two sides threatened to sue each other last week in what is likely to be an ongoing legal battle.

Despite Friday's "invitation" to appear in front of the House Committe on Oversight and Government Reform on Jan. 16, there's no guarantee Clemens will make that date. Clemens' lawyer, Rusty Hardin, indicated Friday that Clemens has to check his schedule. One person familiar with the legal implications suggested yesterday that Clemens might file a lawsuit against McNamee before then, with the hope it would excuse him from the hearings.

Wonder what they talked about . . . I believe the conversation could have gone something like this:

Rocket: I'll give you $18 million if you retract your testimony.

McNamee: Do I get the "family first" clause included in my contract?

Rocket: Sure, but don't rub it in on the rest of your [legal] team. And of course the money is pro-rated per appearance.

McNamee: Deal.

Click!

Cashman: "Things Have Changed"

During a charity event at Fenway Park today, Brian Cashman told reporters his job as Yankees GM has changed with the influx of new ownership.

From LoHud:

For the first time in public, Cashman admitted what has become increasingly evident: That his job has changed since the Steinbrenner sons took control of the team.

“Things have changed here in the third year,” he said. “I’m learning as I go along, too. But it is different. But one thing is that I’ve been with this family, the Steinbrenner family, for well over 20 years. So I’m focused fully on doing everything I possibly can to assist them in their emergence now as decision makers.”

Cashman’s contract runs out in October. Asked whether he wanted to return, he didn’t answer directly.

"At the end of the day, if you have an opportunity to build something and be a leader in that situation, you stick to it. It's your way and you find a way to stick to it, despite the media pressures, the ownership pressures, the fans' pressures and realize, 'You know what? I believe in what I'm doing and I'll stick to it as long as you give me the opportunity and then get judged on the results at the end of the day.'"

Following the panel discussion, Cashman fielded questions on everything from dealing with the Steinbrenner brothers to Roger Clemens and the Mitchell Report.

"Everybody has their own style," Cashman said of the Steinbrenners. "And Hank has obviously taken charge on behalf of his father, along with his brother, Hal. They have different styles. Hal is more quiet and Hank is very available, but my job is to continue to line up the structure of the organization that can find the amateur talent."

“Because of all the work that gets involved with doing the job, it kind of prevents me from really looking ahead past this year,” he said. “I’m just doing everything I possibly can to assist the transition with the new manager, the new owners, with the involvement now with the Steinbrenner sons. And then the rest will take care of itself at another time.”

Nothing surprising from the report, other than the fact that Hank Steinbrenner has yet to issue a public rebuttle... yet.

Canseco "Does Not Have The Goods" On A-Rod

According to the New York Daily News, Jose Canseco's plans for his follow-up to the steroid confession Juiced is already losing credibility. Former associated editor of Sports Illustrated, Don Yaeger, who was supposed to collaborate on the book has decided to pass on the project. Essentially, Yaeger told the Daily News Canseco ain't got $h*t on Alex Rodriguez.

From the Daily News:

Jose Canseco’s sequel to his 2005 best-seller “Juiced” has hit its first snag.

As the Daily News first reported last weekend, former Bash Brother Canseco has finalized a deal to publish “Vindicated” with Penguin Books, with a planned release date to coincide with Opening Day.

But former Sports Illustrated associate editor Don Yaeger, who was scheduled to collaborate with Canseco on the book, has passed on the project. Yaeger said Friday that Canseco does not have the goods on Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez that Canseco alluded to in media interviews last month.

“I’m passing,” Yaeger told the Daily News. “I had a chance to review the Jose Canseco (material) that he provided me. I don’t think there’s a book there. I don’t know what they’re going to do. I don’t think he’s got what he claims to have, certainly doesn’t have what he claims to have on A-Rod.

“There’s no meat on the bones.”

Yaeger said what he was provided with fell far short of the Canseco boasts. "The thing is, if he had all this material, why wasn't it in the first book?" asked Yaeger.

There you have it; them bones is bare.

Jose may have been "shocked" that Rodriguez was not included in the Mitchell Report, but no one's shocked by this devastating blow to Vindicated. No doubt Canseco knew some of the goings-on of the steroid renaissance, but deep down he was always just a opportunistic media-whore looking to turn a quick buck.

Maybe he can write a new tome.... just title the project Evicted, expressing the hardships of a fallen cheater author. The only one vindicated, here, is Alexander the Great.

· Hankenstein Refuses To Shut Up

Hank Steinbrenner continues to broadcast Yankees internal debate on Johan Santana:

“Nothing is really decided at this point. I’m still leaning towards doing it. There’s others leaning not to do it. There are some others that are leaning to do it also. Disagreements within the organization. Nothing major, but just different opinions. I’ve changed my opinion a couple times.”

He also explained though Cashman is the general manager, "I am going to make the final decisions."

On December 2, here's what Hank told Bill Madden of the Daily News during what Little Steinbrenner referred to as his last interview:

"My dad always loved the limelight," Hank says, "and that was part of the reason he never wanted to retire. Me? I could take it or leave it, although I do enjoy connecting with the media and, by association, our fans."

Gee, Hank sure seems to be taking a lot more of the limelight than leaving during his first few weeks on the job. Like I said two months ago, shut your yap Lil' Stein.

Dick Cheney Must Not Like The Nats

Luis Ayala, starting pitcher for the Washington Nationals may be late for Spring Training this year, but he has a good excuse. During a post-Christmas hunting trip Ayala was injured when he was accidentally shot with spread pellets.

From The Washington Post:

While on a fishing/hunting trip shortly after Christmas, Luis Ayala was accidentally sprayed in the upper LEFT forearm by a single shotgun pellet. After the incident, Luis immediately contacted the Nationals training staff. He was subsequently flown to Los Angles, where he was examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum.

Dr. Yocum's exam rendered a bruised nerve. Luis is currently experiencing a slight tingling sensation that is common with a nerve contusion to this area of the body. This tingling sensation is improving daily.

Fortunately, Dr. Yocum's exam noted no artery damage and Ayala's nerve is intact. Luis' motor function is normal. He has full use of his arm and hand.

X-Rays/Pictures of Ayala's arm show small fragments of the pellet currently reside in the arm, but these will not be touched, as they have caused no problems. This is standard protocol for this type of injury assuming an infection does not arise (which it has not for Ayala).

No word on Cheney's whereabouts though it's believed he is still at large stealing oil from a small middle eastern country.

The VP needs to learn how to shoot straight. Get it, that's a double entendre!

*Editors Note: this post was meant in jest and any governmental agency who may be viewing thanks to the Patriot Act know Vice President Cheney had his shotgun privileges revoked long ago.

Power Struggle: Cash vs Hank

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times believes payroll is at the heart of the Santana debate. A debate which has reportedly divided the Yankees seller (Hank) from the Yankees farmer (Cashman).

From NY Times:

Hal Steinbrenner’s primary responsibility is to oversee the Yankees’ finances, and he is reluctant to add another huge contract.

According to several people who have spoken to the brothers recently, that is the crux of the debate in the organization over whether to trade for Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins.

Both Steinbrenners want the team to keep winning. Hal Steinbrenner would try to do it with the existing payroll of roughly $200 million. Hank is more inclined to add Santana, largely to keep him away from the rival Boston Red Sox.

The result of the internal debate is that nothing has changed since the Yankees pulled their offer at the winter meetings in Nashville a month ago.

There is no standing offer, but from earlier trade talks, the Yankees know they would have to deal starter Phil Hughes, center fielder Melky Cabrera, the minor league pitcher Jeff Marquez and another prospect for Santana.

For the Yankees, the $140 million figure would be compounded by an additional $56 million they would owe in luxury taxes, because they are still charged an extra 40 cents for every dollar they spend. Investing almost $200 million in Santana for seven years — and the prospects — is clearly too steep a price for General Manager Brian Cashman.

Cashman wrested autonomy over baseball decisions from George Steinbrenner when he signed a three-year contract extension in October 2005. But Steinbrenner had already begun moving to the background, and his sons did not take an active role until last season.

So far, Hank Steinbrenner has listened to Cashman, endorsing his strategy of investing in amateur talent and developing and keeping homegrown pitching.

Hughes offered the Yankees two delicious glimpses into his future last season: his first major league victory, on May 1, when he fired six and a third no-hit innings until leaving with a strained hamstring; and his showing in September, when he went 3-0 with a 2.73 earned run average before earning a victory in relief in the playoffs.

Some Yankees officials believe Hughes could eventually be as good as Santana at a fraction of the cost. But Santana, despite an ordinary second half, is a two-time Cy Young award winner who would make the Yankees much more imposing to the champion Red Sox.

Kepner reminds fans the required inclusion of Melky Cabrera in any Santana deal would result in a defensive hit to an already shaky outfield.

He then brings up the possibility of the Yankees signing Mike Cameron to patrol centerfield, "a player Alex Rodriguez has been privately endorsing," though the ex-Met will miss the first 25 games of the season after testing positive for amphetamines.

Heyman: Mets May Give Up The Farm

According to WFAN radio show Mike & The Mad Dog and guest Jon Heyman, the Mets are willing to give up "any" four top prospects if it lands Johan Santana. This includes Mulvey, Fernando Martinez, Gomez and Guerra.

From Metsblog via the Jon Heyman interview on WFAN.com:

During his appearance on WFAN today, SI.com’s Jon Heyman said that the Twins know they must trade Johan Santana, and the ‘general sense around baseball’ is that they will.

According to Heyman, the Yankees and Mets are most interested in Santana, but Yankees GM Brian Cashman does not want to make a move.

The Mets, however, notes Heyman, are very serious - so much so that ‘some Mets people’ believe they have made the ‘best offer so far,’ i.e., ‘any four of their prospects.’

Am I the only one praying that the Mets get Santana?

Because I'm sure Red Sox fans would be just as happy with Johan in Flushing instead of the Bronx.

Clemens Pulls The Barroid Defense

Clemens says his trainer injected him with Lidocaine and B-12 shots.

Roger Clemens says he was injected with "Lidocaine and B-12" and not steroids or human growth hormone by former trainer Brian McNamee, according to a portion of an interview with CBS' "60 Minutes" released Thursday.

"Lidocaine and B-12. It's for my joints, and B-12 I still take today," Clemens told Mike Wallace in the interview, which is scheduled to be shown Sunday night. It is Clemens' first interview since the release of the Mitchell report in December.

In the report, McNamee claims to have injected Clemens with steroids in 1998, 2000 and 2001. He said he injected the seven-time Cy Young winner with HGH in 2000, according to the report.

According to CBS, Clemens calls the accusation that he used steroids and HGH "ridiculous" and says he "never" used any banned substances. The interview was conducted last Friday.

Wallace asked Clemens if he swears he didn't used banned substances. "Swear," Clemens responds.

Lidocaine is a local anesthetic that can be used by dentists and in minor surgery. It also is available as part of ointments used to treat skin inflammation.

Clemens is scheduled to hold a news conference on Monday, the day after the interview is broadcast.

60 Minutes had a clueless Katie Couric interview Alex Rodriguez. Only a Roger Clemens denial tour could top that fluffy piece.

* * * *

· Meanwhile, a Boston.com chat with Tom Yawkey Peter Gammons revealed little.

· Finally, Oakland trades Nick Swisher for two ChiSox top pitching prospects.

* * * *

HOME

Hank Just Can't Quit Talking Johan

Hank Steinbrenner, newly appointed Yankees emperor and outspoken mouthpiece, felt it necessary to deem the bombers' offer for Johan Santana as "the top offer" over the Red Sox and Mets. He also laid down another ironclad deadline for a decision on trade talks involving the two-time Cy Young winner.

Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner believes his team has made the top offer for Johan Santana, according to a report in the New York Daily News.

"I think the Twins realize our offer is the best one," Steinbrenner told the newspaper. "I feel confident they're not going to trade him before checking with us one last time and I think they think we've already made the best offer."

Multiple reports have pegged the Yankees' offer to the Twins for Santana to be right-handed pitcher Phil Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera, right-handed pitching prospect Jeff Marquez and another prospect.

"I either have to do it [a Santana deal] or don't do it, same thing for the Red Sox, I guess," Steinbrenner said. "I think the Twins would like to keep him, so I don't think there's any hurry on anyone's part. It all depends on what [Santana] asks for in an extension. You obviously have to be very careful with pitchers, for obvious reasons."

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports, meanwhile, that trade talks involving Santana have moved so slowly it's now possible a trade may not get done "for several weeks."

Stark says the most surprising aspect of those talks to some baseball people is that the Mets remain in the mix. It may be because the Twins would like to move Santana to the National League if possible. But while the Mets have made a four-for-one offer built around center fielder Carlos Gomez, indications are that the teams remain far apart.

Hank Steinbrenner: every sportswriter's dream and every Yankee fan's nightmare.

Breaking: Torre Ain't Sayin' Nuttin

Today, reporters tried to coax former Yankees manager Joe Torre into discussing the recent Mitchell Report and two of its main attractions, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. But, Torre ain't no stinking rat.

From ESPN.com:

Joe Torre won't pick sides between Roger Clemens and Brian McNamee, the former New York Yankees strength coach who accused the Rocket of using performance-enhancing drugs.

"You're not going to get me in that jackpot," the former Yankees manager said Wednesday. "I'd rather just stay away from making any in-depth comment about the whole steroid-HGH thing."

Torre, who managed Clemens for six seasons, spoke during a Golf Channel conference call ahead of the Mercedes-Benz Championship in Kapalua, Hawaii, where he will be honorary starter.

"I'm very close to Roger. When I say close to him, he was a great competitor for me. Andy the same way. And I certainly know they're two proud individuals that only like to do the right thing," Torre said. "I'd just like to leave it at that."

"It made it look like a lopsided report," Torre said. "Plus, don't forget, the Yankees have so many people coming through there on a year-to-year basis. We changed over quite often, whether it would be a player for the month of May, a player for the month of September. But I think the big part of it was the access, where these two people were both based in New York.

Torre suspects use may have been more widespread.

"When you're talking about 80 players that supposedly were using one thing or another, to me it may be an incomplete report," he said. "The only thing I do know is that the most important thing for us in baseball is to make sure that when we take the field, that the fans trust us. So whatever we have to do to make that happen, I think that's important."

There you have it. Torre won't turn states evidence, though he did take a nice shot at the Red Sox steroid report. Somewhere Clemens is planning his next move, no doubt under the guidance of Jake Gittes and Philip Marlowe.

This is the most entertaining circus since the Ringling Bros met Barnum and Bailey.

Another Day, Another Bit Of Santana Torture Speculation

In other words, this piece from the Sporting News, offers no new insights but does present the perspective of a frustrated sportswriter who likes Johan Santana a bit too much. (I don't know if Santana once saved Sean Deveney's life or rescued Deveney's cat from a burning building, but I do know that his column sure seems narrow-minded.)

We know Santana is a bonafide #1 starter, but that does not mean Theo Epstein, Brian Cashman or Omar Minaya have to sell their soul to obtain him. Even when the topic of discussion is a top pitcher in the majors, reason still plays a role in the conversation.

We'll start with the biggest question (on-field, at least) looming over MLB: Why the heck hasn't anyone traded for Johan Santana?

Am I crazy? We're talking Johan Santana, right? He's an ace, a durable lefty available in a market in which back-of-the-rotation starter Carlos Silva signed for $48 million over four years. It's the same market in which Barry Zito, coming off three very average seasons, received $126 million over seven years. How is it that teams are not falling all over themselves to get Santana?

"I think there are a couple of reasons," says one NL executive. "For one thing, the Zito deal is scary. What if you pay him all that money and he falls apart? And there's free agency. Why clear out your best prospects for someone who you can sign next winter?"

Valid points, but again, this is Santana. He is not showing the signs of decline that Zito was showing before signing with the Giants last offseason. And yes, he will be a free agent next winter. The idea, though, is to give him a contract before he hits the open market. It sounds so simple, but no one has done it.

Deveney goes on to mock the reluctance of the three teams with the strongest link to Santana (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets) because each team refuses to add another strong prospect, Ian Kennedy, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Reyes respectively.

Should a team be hesitant to trade two or three top-shelf prospects and couple that proposal with a contract of seven years, $150 million, wouldn't it be smart business (if possible) to explore the opportunity of free agency.

If any team pulls the trigger on a blockbuster deal, it will certainly eliminate the FA avenue of obtaining Santana, but as of right now it appears every team involved with the Santana talks has submitted a representative offer.

If the Twins continue to ask teams to sweeten the pot for the rights to one controlled year of Johan - Minnesota is greatly undervaluing the cost of signing the lefty longterm - Minnesota may well be picking up two draft picks by season's end.

RLYW: Wang Not A Fluke

Thanks to the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog, Chien Ming Wang's success despite a minuscule k/9 has been brought to the table as only sabermetrics can:

If you're a baseball fan with at least some proclivity towards stats, you're probably familiar with Voros McCracken's DIPS theory. McCracken basically stated that a pitcher's ability to control what happens on balls in play is variable and volatile. Some overly extreme devotees to this theory take it to mean that a pitcher has zero control over a ball hit into play, but that's not really true. If it was, you wouldn't have groundball pitchers and fly ball pitchers.

Also, selection bias would mean that anyone who reaches the majors may have a certain level of skill on balls in play that allowed them to get that far. I still think DIPS theory is useful in many ways, primarily because it taught me to look more closely at a pitcher's peripherals, but it's really just a fraction of any evaluating of pitching that I do.

One of the often-stated mantras about Chien-Ming Wang is that he generates easily fieldable ground balls, which means his success despite a low strikeout rate is not really that much of a fluke. It's possible this is true, at least in the regular season, but is there a way to quantify it?

Exhaust your baseball acumen and read the rest of the post.

Apparently Mets and Sox Fans DO Leave The House

It wouldn't be A-Rod without controversy.

To the Mets fan who chucked something:

at least you'll get Johan Santana.........
.....for Reyes, Wright, Gomez, Sid Fernandez and Omar's first-born.

But in all seriousness, Happy New Year everybody.

EWC: Yankees Target Darvish

East Windup Chronicle, required reading for Japanese baseball news, cites a Korean newspaper which reports the Yankees are targeting 21 year-old pitching phenom Yu Darvish.

I’m surprised it took this long, but the Yu Darvish to MLB rumors may have just officially kicked off right along with the new year. A Sports Hankook (Korea) report, relying on a Japanese source (Sports Nikkan), says that the Yankees plan to nab Darvish following the 2008 season.

The report goes on to say that the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs have also made “love calls” (러브콜) to Darvish and that the floor of negotiations is something along the lines of what Daisuke Matsuzaka was able to command during his posting extravaganza in 2006.

Analysis: Well, why the heck would Darivsh want to sign with the Yankees when he can make nearly $2 million big ones playing in Japan? If the Dice K signing is the “floor,” I shudder to think what the ceiling might be. Dice K’s signing could be made to look like peanut shells. Given Darvish’s dominance of the NPB at such an early age (21) would $12-$15 million per year be out of the question?

Not to be a killjoy, but it should be noted that this is a Korean newspaper reporting something posted (blogged) on a Japanese newspaper’s Web site. While I’m of the opinion that both sources are reputable in and of themselves (Sports Nikkan was first to report the L.A. signing of Kuroda), the implications of this rumor are too big to not warrant further checking before we hustle Darvish off to New York.

The report may turn out to be false, considering that the idea of posting a 21 year old superstar goes against all logic. However, the prospect of a posting fee topping Matsuzaka's $50+ million could be an option which the Nippon Ham Fighters franchise would like to secure when his value is at its apex.

He could certainly improve upon his already impressive career in Japan, but there is always the chance of a fall-off, major injury, mental breakdown or one of a million other sidetracks. By posting Darvish following the 2008 season the Ham Fighters would be limiting the possibility of the stud pitcher losing his value to MLB.

Scouting Report:

Darvish throws a low-90s fastball (91-93 mph). At 21 years old, he is 6 foot 5 and under 180 lbs. which means he has the potential to add weight and thereby add velocity.

He throws a plus knuckle curveball along with a sinker, slider, and changeup.

His 2007 season, which earned him the Japanese version of the Cy Young was spectacular:

1.82 ERA, 26 starts, 207 innings pitched, 123 hits, 210 strikeouts, 49 walks and 12 complete games. That works out to a k/bb of 4.29, a batting average against of .170 while averaging 8 innings pitched per start. Wow.