Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Shaky Weather In KC

The forecast for today's 4pm start in Kansas City looked bleak as late as yesterday evening with showers and thunderstorms expected. However, this morning the weather prediction seems more mild, with a few showers expected around game time clearing up by 6pm. There is always the possibility the Royals decide to push the game back a few hours to accommodate.

Today's starting matchup is Phil Hughes vs. Brian Bannister.

Monday, April 7, 2008

No DL For Jeter . . . Yet

Derek Jeter's quad injury first surfaced on Sunday, and the strain may keep him out a week. From The Star Ledger:

Postgame, manager Joe Girardi said Jeter's strained left quad would keep him out of the lineup Tuesday in Kansas City, but that the team is not putting Jeter on the disabled list at this time and is hoping it won't have to.

Jeter had an MRI that revealed the strain and scoffed at the idea of the DL. He said he first felt the muscle "grab" during Sunday's game but thought it was a cramp. Felt it again during his first-inning at-bat and that's why he looked awkward running to first base -- said he didn't want to run hard for fear of further injury.

Girardi said he hoped to have Jeter back within a week, but can't be sure.

Jeter Leaves With Quad Groin Strain

UPDATE 9:15: ESPN's Buster Olney just reported Jeter left with a groin problem, not the quadriceps injury which was originally reported and will go for an MRI tonight.

Derek Jeter left Monday night's game with what was termed a "mild quad strain," though Yankees injury news is always downplayed before it is totally necessary.

Quads are tricky to diagnose because they can be day-to-day, or last for weeks [see: Beltran, Carlos].

Paps Makes Theo Looks Stupid [Again]

The Red Sox sure aren't making GM Theo Epstein look very good. Considering the boy genius called out Mike Mussina for voicing his displeasure over an exhibition trip to Japan, the comments Jonathon Papelbon offered during a recent radio interview completely contradict Theo's "bad apple" remarks toward Moose.

Threatening to boycott the Japan trip altogether was one thing, but now comes straight up whining on the part of the Red Sox closer:

"It’s been pretty ridiculous,” Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon said after his team’s first regular-season game in the eastern time zone.

Believe me, Papelbon isn’t on an island with his opinion. Even before the final out was registered last night, the Sox’ well-worn description of the 19-day road trip as “a business trip” had morphed into downright disgust.

“I feel like if we start struggling toward the end of the year, don’t ask questions. That’s if we do. I’m not saying we are,” Papelbon said. “We might breeze through that last month. But if aches and pains are starting to come that normally don’t, and intensity starts to lower, which I hope it doesn’t . . .but if that does happen don’t ask questions.”

“Not only to start out in Japan, but all the responsibilities they asked of us in Japan, the appearances, all the extra (stuff) besides going to Japan. Not only that but I think things were said and promised and not held up,” Papelbon said. “That certainly starts the trip out on the wrong foot.

"There's not an exact reason why you're going to win or lose a ballgame, but there are certain things that help predict the outcome and this trip is definitely starting to feel its effects," he said. "It's not just me, but I think a lot of other players."

Once again, Theo, I'd like you [pot] to meet kettle.

Deconstructing Yankee Stadium

What it took to build Yankee Stadium.

Size of lot: 10 acres

Construction time: 284 days

Rebar: 800 tons

Mechanical steel: 2,300 tons

Topsoil: 13,000 yds.

Concrete: 20,000 yds.

Dirt removed: 45,000 cubic yds.

Sod: 116,000 sq. ft.

Cost to purchase lot: $675,000

Lumber for bleachers: 950,000 board ft.

Total lumber: 4,000,000 board ft.

Brass screws: 1,000,000

Construction fee: $2,500,000

Justice: Cash, Pettitte Finished

An uncharacteristic column from Richard Justice of the Sporting News made its way to my inbox today. In it, Justice proves to know little or nothing about the current state of the New York Yankees fanbase and also makes kneejerk reactions to the possibility of Andy Pettitte and/or Brian Cashman leaving New York next season.

We appear to be seeing the beginning of the end of Andy Pettitte's marvelous career, and if you care about the New York Yankees, this may be more bad news than you can digest in one sitting.

In a related move, Brian Cashman likely will end up leaving, too. By, say, this time next year, the Yankees as you once knew them will no longer exist.

The Yankees will go back to the future, back to a time when they ran chaotically, spent wildly and never won a thing.

Right now, you're thinking change is a good thing. You're thinking it was a good idea for Joe Torre to hit the road. You're probably thinking the same about Brian Cashman, since he got cold feet when it came time to pull the trigger during the Johan Santana trade discussions.

You're tired of hearing about the long-term interests of the franchise. You want now.

Right . . . This is the epitome of shock journalism - writing controversial opinion, without much evidence, in the hopes of surprising readers into buying newspapers. I do not disagree Cashman and Pettitte could be spending their final season in the Bronx. However, contending the Yankees organization will instantly become a wasteland and Pettitte is finished after one start is absurd and uninformed drivel.

Justice goes on to speculate Pettitte was "hit hard and often" on Saturday. While Jonny Gomes did hit a linedrive homer which landed about 5 inches over the leftfield fence, Pettitte was not hit nearly as hard as Justice would have you think. Maybe he did not even watch the game, though that would probably interfere with his apocalyptic premise.

This is particularly disappointing because Justice had previously been a very reliable source of baseball information.

Pags: Mechanics Sap Hughes Velocity

Over at Dugout Central, Mike Pagliarulo investigated the velocity loss seen in Phil Hughes' fastball during his first start of the season. According to Pags, Hughes can blame his lackluster radar readings on mechanical flaws and not an injury or inexplicable malady. Certainly this is a possibility, though there may be even simpler reasons.

Let me preface his study by quoting Pagliarulo's conclusion late in the article which claims, "Let's not forget [Hughes] should still be in AA Trenton."

Wait, what? Pags shows how little he knows about Phil's development, considering in 2006 he tossed 116 innings at AA Trenton, striking out 138, walking 32, allowing only 72 hits, with a 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and a BAA of .171. If there was ever a 20 year-old ready to jump to AAA and then the major leagues, it was Phil Hughes.

Pagliarulo is the same opinionated third baseman - and not a catcher/pitcher - who predicted Kei Igawa would be an very good acquisition. He then went on to ream Igawa as a poor move as if he never lauded him in the first place. Let's also remember Hughes is coming off a very strong outing, so the criticism is silly and unnecessary:

The reason Phil Hughes isn’t throwing his fastball faster than 91 MPH is mechanics – and nothing else. Why doesn’t Brian Cashman know this? Because he’s an expert at managing groups, people and processes; he’s NOT a baseball expert in terms of scouting, of understanding pitching mechanics, or understanding hitting mechanics, etc. That’s in no way an insult to Brian. Jack Welch, formerly CEO of General Electric, is one of the most respected business leaders of our time, and he couldn’t build a jet engine or a refrigerator himself. But he could manage the people who could.

So, it’s unfair to ask Cashman the Hughes question since it’s not his area of expertise. It’s like asking Joe Girardi about brain surgery.

The good news is that Hughes’ mechanics are fixable. Whether he is coachable – a trait needed for a player to improve – is another thing. I’m not saying he isn’t coachable; I just don’t know the guy, so I can’t say.

In his last Spring training start Hughes was easily hitting 93-94 mph on the radar gun. The explanation for his 91 mph heater last Thursday may be as simple as Hughes having to pitch in Winter-like conditions.

Whatever the case, the 94-95 mph range may not be his sitting velocity [though his 2007 average velocity was over 92], but rest assured he can rear back for mid-90s heat. Coming out of high school he hit triple digits on the radar gun, but Hughes takes pride in an easy low-effort delivery. Apparently WasWatching and Pagliarulo would rather have Hughes throwing 95-96 mph and give up five runs than what we've seen so far this season.

As a reference point, Detroit requested that Justin Verlander take some off his fastball in favor of movement this year. The same may be true of the Yankees and Hughes.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Joba's Plan Ain't New
[Well, Duh]

Joel Sherman finally figured out the Yankees plan for Joba Chamberlain in 2008 - pitching half the year in the bullpen before joining the rotation - is not some crazy, unprecedented blueprint.
The Cardinals are masters of this maneuver. Rotation members Brad Thompson, Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro (on the DL) each had 10 starts and 20 relief appearances in 2007. Ace Adam Wainwright and Braden Looper moved from closers to starters. St. Louis GM John Mozeliak said longtime pitching coach Dave Duncan "has a model in mind of who can make the conversion generally it is big guys who have shown durability and have more than two pitches."

Chamberlain is certainly a big guy. And Gil Patterson, who worked as a pitching coordinator for the Yankes in 2006-07, vouched that Chamberlain's "curve and changeup are not far behind his fastball and slider, which are electric" and that "there is no question with stamina. He was throwing [last year] 95-96 [mph] in pitches 80 to 90."

But the two cases most similar to where the Yanks are with Chamberlain involve Santana and the Dodgers' Chad Billingsley.
Shocker, considering last year's use of Chad Billingsley by the LA Dodgers is the comparison this blog and countless others have referenced in illustrating the advantage and safety of such a program.

The Dodgers righty was 22 last season, the same as Chamberlain this year. It was his first full major league campaign. He opened with 23 games in relief (6-4, 3.09 ERA, 40 strikeouts in 35 innings). He followed with 20 starts (8-5, 3.38 ERA with 101 whiffs in 112 innings). In total, he pitched 147 innings and began this year as a full-time member of the rotation, a combo similar to what the Yanks envision for Chamberlain between 2008 and 2009.

And Dodgers GM Ned Colletti cited almost the same reasons for Billingsley's usage pattern in 2007 as the Yanks offer for Chamberlain in 2008: "He was ready for the big leagues. Our bullpen was comprised in such a way that we needed him there to start. We got him big-league time and experience without extending his innings or putting him in danger physically. . . . By the end of the year, we wished we had two of him because when we took him out of 'pen the 'pen suffered."

Johan Santana is the other example many [including Sherman] use as a measuring stick for Chamberlain:
Santana climbed from 1081/3 innings in 2002 to 1581/3 innings in 2003, and then in his age-25 season began a four-year stretch in which he became exclusively a starter and led the AL (9121/3 ) in innings before joining the Mets. Santana's arm probably was protected by the gradual innings progression, as the Yanks hope they are doing with Joba.

"At this point, I would have to say, yes [that the 'pen was good for him]," Santana said. "Back then? No. I wanted to be a starter my whole career. . . . I learned a lot in the bullpen. It gives you more time to think, and I went through every possible situation as a pitcher. You're exposed to everything out there, and I'm a guy who's always watched and listened. If Joba does the same thing, he'll be fine."

Hughes Relates To Pedro

The Journal News has Phil Hughes' reaction after witnessing Pedro Martinez suffer an eerily similar injury to the one the young Yankee did during his terrific start against the Texas Rangers last year.

The Mets #2 starter likely faces an even more arduous recovery period since he is roughly 16 years old than Hughes was when the then 20 year-old went down with a hamstring tear:
It was May 1 of last season when Hughes suffered the same injury in Texas. Seven outs away from a no-hitter, he limped off the field.

"Right when I saw what happened to Pedro on television, I thought, 'Oh, man,' because I remembered that feeling," Hughes said. "It looked like the same thing happened to him that happened to me. I really feel for him."
"The legs are your foundation," Hughes said. "You throw the ball with your arm, but it starts from the feet up. If there's a broken link somewhere in that process, it's tough."
"I thought initially it would be 4-6 weeks like they told me," he said. "It ended up being three months. But I didn't really get my fastball back until September. I was still tentative in August because I was afraid I'd hurt it again. It's tough to get over."
Martinez injured the same leg as well - the left one - which receives the most stress, pressure and weight from a righthander's delivery. It's this leg which provides the extra late-life and velocity pitchers need on their fastball.

First One To Seven Wins...

Bill Madden says these days a seven inning start is the new complete game. According to the article, teams with the most starts at or exceeding seven innings tend to find their way into October:

According to Elias Sports Bureau, the teams that get the most outings of seven or more innings from their starting pitchers have the best chance of making the playoffs. Last year, the Cleveland Indians led the majors with 71 games in which their starters went seven or more innings and they finished first in their division. The National League leaders were the Arizona Diamondbacks, with 59, and, not coincidentally, they too won their division.

With the exception of 2006, over the last five years those teams that finished first or second in the majors in starts of seven innings or more all made the playoffs. However, even those "new" complete game numbers are shrinking, as evidenced by the Yankees' major league-leading 87 starts of seven-plus innings in 2003, to the Angels' and Indians' major league-leading 71 in '06 and '07, respectively.

Duncan: I Played Like Crap

At least that's what Shelley Duncan said of his own play during Saturday's game:

Acting manager Rob Thomson liked how the young first baseman "battled," but Shelley Duncan boiled down his first start of the season to another word.

"Poop," Duncan said as he fiddled with the tab of a soda can in front of his clubhouse stall after yesterday's 6-3 loss to the Rays.

Duncan ripped a second-inning single to left in his first at-bat, but his afternoon deteriorated quickly. He finished 1-for-4, grounded out with two runners on base to end the eighth and committed a throwing error that led to two unearned runs.

"I feel like I have some work to do," Duncan said. "I felt like poop a little bit. Hopefully, I can put the work in the cage and next time around I can be sharp."

As for his choice of words, Duncan said, "It just means you feel you can do a lot better, you feel you can feel a lot better. You don't feel like your swing at everything was 100 percent. That was me [yesterday]. Poop."
Duncan had better find a poop scooper at first if he wants to challenge Jason Giambi for a recurring role in the infield.

Saturday, April 5, 2008

SNY: A-Rod Postseason Numbers
Better Than You Thought

From Michael Salfino of Sportsnet New York comes a look at Alex Rodriguez in the postseason and the success he had before becoming a Yankee. Most fans realize this, of course, so it isn't particularly as groundbreaking as Salfino believes it to be.

It's also unclear how effective his analysis could be when Salfino - a Mets slanted writer working for a Mets tv network - claims "a majority of Yankees fans can't stand Rodriguez." This coming after he visited a North Jersey bar and sniped at Yankee fans as if he were some beacon of baseball knowledge.

From the column:

This so-called confirmation bias is a long-established universal of human decision-making. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky won a Nobel Prize in 2002 for their work in this area. For our purposes, it demonstrates that once we define a player in a certain way, we seek information that supports that view and reject information that contradicts it.

But A-Rod was a postseason force early in his career, and against the Yankees no less: .409/.480/.773 in the 2000 ALCS loss to the Bombers.

But his team lost. That’s another key to clutchness: your team has to win or your achievement is quickly forgotten or somehow viewed as “not quite enough.”

A-Rod went .320/.392/.600 in his first Yankees postseason. But two big things worked against him. He was the highest-paid player in baseball and thus was expected to perform at least at that level. More importantly, the Yankees lost that seven-game ALCS to the Red Sox. By the way, Derek Jeter went .200/.333/.233 in that Red Sox debacle, but the view of him being a clutch player, shaped during a string of successful playoff runs when he was earning near minimum big-league salaries, was cemented.

Friday, April 4, 2008

Girardi Out With Flu

Manager Joe Girardi will miss tonight's game - assuming the weather permits - because of an upper respiratory infection.
Yankees bench coach Rob Thomson will manage tonight's game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium because manager Joe Girardi is suffering from an upper respiratory infection and has decided to stay inside the Yankees clubhouse. Girardi, who had a high fever, is expected to be available to manage tomorrow's game, which is at 1 p.m.

Melky, Shelley Drop Appeal
Will Miss Two Games

According to the Star Ledger, Melky Cabrera and Shelley Duncan have both dropped their appeals and will sit out the next two games. The penalty for each player has been reduced from the original three game suspension:
Center fielder Melky Cabrera and first baseman Shelley Duncan dropped their appeals of their three-game suspensions for the bench-clearing incident between the Yankees and Rays in spring training. Both players had their suspensions reduced to two games, and Cabrera will serve his tonight and tomorrow, with Duncan serving his Sunday and Monday.
We'll see if this quells any possible confrontation during the Tampa Bay series this weekend.

Psycho-T Hits Like A Girl


Classic Simpsons Metaphors

Many have tried and more have failed, but a couple years ago Barstool Sports succeeded in compiling the definitive MLB Simpsons analogy list. A few of them are still spot on today:
Oakland A's - Bart Simpson - Reliable bad-boy winners who march to the beat of their own drum. Locked in a constant struggle against the overbearing establishment. Every time you think they're going to get what's coming to them, they weasel out of it and surprise you again.
Florida Marlins - Snake - Riding high for a while, publicly executed, and then somehow cheated death to escape and rise again. Important players in cities known for their rampant drug and crime problems. They seem to be in trouble a lot, but never really go away. Almost lost something of great value to a much wealthier, more prestigious individual, but hung onto it in the end (stealing his girlfriend back from Mr. Burns, 2003 World Series).
Houston Astros - Marge Simpson - Their fortunes rise and fall with those of a guy who has put together an unbelievable string of successes despite obviously being an inveterate jerk. Seemingly infinite reservoir of patience for someone who has proven themselves to be not worth hanging on to (Homer, Brad Ausmus).

Cincinnati Reds - Principal Seymour Skinner - Spent much of their existence under the hand of a domineering, insane woman who was impossible to please (Agnes Skinner, Marge Schott). Possessors of a dirty little secret that they would rather sweep under the rug (Skinner's true identity of Armand Tamzarian, Pete Rose). Their lives were given meaning in the '70s (Vietnam, the Big Red Machine) but now all they have to escape the monotony of their everyday existence is the flashbacks.
San Francisco Giants - Abe "Grandpa" Simpson - Even older than you would have thought. Surrounded by other decrepit crones, and they have a tendency to live in the past. Completely dependent on a big lug of questionable moral turpitude who, curiously, never seems to get any older.
Los Angeles Dodgers - Disco Stu - Overconfident and forever predicting the return of their glory days. Brought up by devoted fans more often than is probably reasonable, considering their sporadic appearances. Haven't been relevant since the '80s.
Hat tip to Baseball Think Factory.

Melancon Not Hurt

There had been some clamoring yesterday over Mark Melancon and his health. The powerful righthanded reliever was said to have entered Thursday's Tampa Yankees game but was removed before throwing a pitch. Many had worried Melancon had been injured in some way, but it was apparently human error as manager Luis Sojo forgot to add him to the Tampa Roster:
Mark Melancon is not hurt. He didn’t enter the game after throwing warmup pitches (that I took video of and analyzed like the Zapruder film), because T-Yanks Manager Luis Sojo forgot to put him on the roster. Just a simple brain fart. Don’t feel bad for freaking out though Yankee fans, until the game ended and this was figured out, Yankee brass in the stands were in a state of panic as well.
Dellin Betances was more than healthy in his first Charleston start, striking out eight allowing two runs on three hits over five innings.

Giambi & Ballet Don't Mix

According to today's New York Observer - thanks for the tip Preston - Jason Giambi has turned to ballet to help him overcome his recent proneness to injury.
“I’d get hurt all the time, and I just took it as part of getting older,” Giambi said as he stood near his locker before yesterday's game against Tornoto, a bat leaning against his leg. “But when I worked toward getting back from the plantar fasciitis, I worked with a new doctor, who deals with—well—ballet dancers. And he told me that I had really high arches. I got these inserts—“he gestured toward prescription orthotics in his cleats “and suddenly it didn’t hurt to run anymore.”

Giambi suffered knee and back pain so quickly, along with “dead legs” when running in the past that it was never part of his offseason regimen. But this winter, he said, he ran every day. Giambi found a track near his Las Vegas home, and learned how to run without pain for the first time, 60 yards at a time.
On Giambi's offense:

“Well, for one thing, I hope my doubles go back up,” said Giambi, who had as many as 47 doubles in his prime, but just 8 last year. “A lot of singles last year should be doubles this year. And there should be more first-to-third, more second-to-home.”

Though he’s yet to collect a hit in the season’s first three games, Giambi hit .413 this spring. Giambi believes that if his legs hold up, the hitting will take care of itself.

“I still have the batting eye, the power,” Giambi said. “I’m hoping for a big year.”

Just to point out something to The Big G, a good eye does not produce bat-speed.

Yankees Eek Out Series Win

On a cold night, Yankee fans found warmth in the performance of Philip J. Hughes, the 21 year-old righthander who the Bronx faithful refused to part with - even if it meant a Johan Santana return. No one can know what type of season the young arm will have, but if Thursday night was a preview, the feature presentation will be mighty good. Over six innings, Hughes allowed two runs on four hits, walked one, struck out four and only threw 87 pitches [58 for strikes].

Wednesday night's game was rather simple. AJ Burnett came, threw gas, spiked some curveballs and conquered the highly-praised Yankees offense. The lone blemish came in the form of a rocket launched off the bat of Alex Rodriguez. Though New York was able to put the tying run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth, the team looked flat throughout and never seemed a serious threat to recapture the lead.

Last night,
Dustin McGowan mimicked Burnett and frustrated the Yankees lineup for the majority of his six inning effort. As Hughes worked quickly and economically - sideswiped by a weak David Eckstein bloop double and infield single with two outs - it appeared the Yankees bats would again go quiet into that good night. However, the offense rallied with help from McGowan's wildness and ultimately took the lead for good thanks to some poor fielding and a well-placed bloop of their own - thanks to Bobby Abreu.

In all honesty, the Yankees did not deserve to win their opening series, and, had the ball bounced differently on a few occasions, the Bombers could have begun their season like the Detroit Tigers at 0-3. However, they were able to gut out two victories from the jaws of defeat and can now feast their eyes on tomorrow's starter [Andy Sonnanstine] and his robust ERA.

Top Performer:

Phil Hughes -
After already surrendering one run thanks to a patented Eckstein bloop double, Hughes was noticeably on the ropes in the fourth inning. When Alex Rios attempted to swipe second base only to advance to third on Robinson Cano's poor attempt to receive a perfect strike from Jose Molina, the Blue Jays were primed to notch another run. With only one out, Hughes was able to bare down and strike out both Vernon Wells and Frank Thomas to end the threat. The impressive called strike three was not taken so happily by Thomas, whose blow up at homeplate resulted in an early shower for the Big Hurt.

Second Place:

The Bullpen -
Billy Traber came in to face one batter: Lyle Overbay. The lefty specialist did his job by striking out the first baseman and handed the ball to Brian Bruney, who shockingly did not walk a batter or allow a baserunner before closing the seventh inning. Joba Chamberlain came in to pitch the eighth inning, needing 11 pitches [8 for strikes] to retire the side. Mariano Rivera needed 13 pitches to close up shop - but had to record the last out with the tying run standing 90 feet from home.

Honorable mention:
Melky Cabrera who continues his habit of finding himself in the middle of or at the start of a crucial rally. The Melkman did it again last night, leading off the sixth inning with a key single.

Last Place:

Derek Jeter -
When did Jeter become such a rally-killer? It's the third game of the season and everyone with a half a brain realizes the Captain will redeem himself ten-fold for his GIDP-itis, but Yankees pitchers hope it comes sooner than later. Cano's poor fielding during the Rios stolen base and an 0-for at the plate were also none too pretty.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Can't Blame This On A-Rod

Girl walks into Fenway Park. Girl sits down to watch the Red Sox. Girl gets attacked by territorial hawk dwelling at the stadium.

Her name? Alexa Rodriguez...

Alexa's friends, Maria Rivera and Justine Chamberlain, were taken to a safehouse. The hawk, who travels under the alias "Boras," was last seen brainwashing Nancy Drew in rightfield, and is still at large in the Greater Boston area.