The Mystery Of Darvish

Yu Darvish, Japanese pitching ace and national celebrity, is the subject of an interesting piece from Yahoo! Sports.

Any general manager with a pulse covets Darvish. Last season, most of which he pitched as a 20-year old, he went 15-5 with a 1.82 earned-run average and 12 complete games. His fastball hits 97 mph, his slider 91, and he throws a curveball, changeup and sinker. With Darvish, it’s a matter of when he asks the Fighters to post him for auction to the highest major-league bidder.

So, when?

“That,” Iwamoto says, “is a question he can’t answer.”

Japanese baseball’s relevancy has teetered in recent years, and insiders fear that Darvish posting long before his ninth season – after which Japanese players become free agents – might encourage others to do the same.

Certainly there are benefits for Nippon Ham. One American League executive guessed if Darvish posted after this season the fee to negotiate a deal would cost “around $75 million.” Another suggested “it could be even higher.” If the Red Sox paid $51 million for a 26-year-old Matsuzaka, a 22-year-old Darvish could command a 50 percent premium.

“Right now,” Valentine says, “his stuff is probably sharper than Daisuke’s.”

The praise only begins there. Terrmel Sledge, the former Padres outfielder who joined the Fighters this offseason, calls Darvish “one of the five best I’ve ever seen.” Hillman believes Darvish would step in as the No. 1 starter on a majority of major league teams. Kojima thinks Darvish might be the best pitcher in Japanese history.

Checking out some of Darvish's performances on YouTube illustrates the level of command and poise he already possesses as a 20 year-old. His stuff looks to be a notch above Matsuzaka's and apparently will only get higher. An earlier scouting report on Darvish discusses the type of pitcher I've seen and read about over the past couple years:

Darvish throws a low-90s fastball (91-93 mph). At 21 years old, he is 6 foot 5 and under 180 lbs. which means he has the potential to add weight and thereby add velocity.

He throws a plus knuckle curveball along with a sinker, slider, and changeup.

His 2007 season, which earned him the Japanese version of the Cy Young was spectacular:

1.82 ERA, 26 starts, 207 innings pitched, 123 hits, 210 strikeouts, 49 walks and 12 complete games. That works out to a k/bb of 4.29, a batting average against of .170 while averaging 8 innings pitched per start.

Yu Darvish Update

According to Sankei Sports - via Rotoworld - the Nippon Ham Fighters may be willing to post 21 year-old superstar starting pitcher Yu Darvish after the 2008 season, if the young fireballer wishes to pitch in America.

Darvish won't be eligible for free agency until 2014 and has previously said that he's not interested in coming to America, but the Fighters could let him leave before then given a posting fee that some feel could rise beyond the $51 million that the Red Sox paid to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. A Mariners scout told Sankei Sports that Darvish is as good or ahead of Matsuzaka at the same age and Darvish could become more interested in coming to America if he thrives in this summer's Olympics. Darvish went 15-5 with a 1.82 ERA and 210/49 K/BB ratio in 207 2/3 innings last season.

His curveball is a hammer and a true plus pitch already, but his fastball command could use a little work. However, Darvish appears to be far ahead of Matsuzaka at age 21 and in a couple of years could be a frontline starter in the big leagues. If you haven't heard of Darvish already, here is an excerpt from a piece I wrote on him a month ago:

Scouting Report:

Darvish throws a low-90s fastball (91-93 mph). At 21 years old, he is 6 foot 5 and under 180 lbs. which means he has the potential to add weight and thereby add velocity.

He throws a plus knuckle curveball along with a sinker, slider, and changeup.

His 2007 season, which earned him the Japanese version of the Cy Young was spectacular:

1.82 ERA, 26 starts, 207 innings pitched, 123 hits, 210 strikeouts, 49 walks and 12 complete games. That works out to a k/bb of 4.29, a batting average against of .170 while averaging 8 innings pitched per start.

.

EWC: Yankees Target Darvish

East Windup Chronicle, required reading for Japanese baseball news, cites a Korean newspaper which reports the Yankees are targeting 21 year-old pitching phenom Yu Darvish.

I’m surprised it took this long, but the Yu Darvish to MLB rumors may have just officially kicked off right along with the new year. A Sports Hankook (Korea) report, relying on a Japanese source (Sports Nikkan), says that the Yankees plan to nab Darvish following the 2008 season.

The report goes on to say that the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs have also made “love calls” (러브콜) to Darvish and that the floor of negotiations is something along the lines of what Daisuke Matsuzaka was able to command during his posting extravaganza in 2006.

Analysis: Well, why the heck would Darivsh want to sign with the Yankees when he can make nearly $2 million big ones playing in Japan? If the Dice K signing is the “floor,” I shudder to think what the ceiling might be. Dice K’s signing could be made to look like peanut shells. Given Darvish’s dominance of the NPB at such an early age (21) would $12-$15 million per year be out of the question?

Not to be a killjoy, but it should be noted that this is a Korean newspaper reporting something posted (blogged) on a Japanese newspaper’s Web site. While I’m of the opinion that both sources are reputable in and of themselves (Sports Nikkan was first to report the L.A. signing of Kuroda), the implications of this rumor are too big to not warrant further checking before we hustle Darvish off to New York.

The report may turn out to be false, considering that the idea of posting a 21 year old superstar goes against all logic. However, the prospect of a posting fee topping Matsuzaka's $50+ million could be an option which the Nippon Ham Fighters franchise would like to secure when his value is at its apex.

He could certainly improve upon his already impressive career in Japan, but there is always the chance of a fall-off, major injury, mental breakdown or one of a million other sidetracks. By posting Darvish following the 2008 season the Ham Fighters would be limiting the possibility of the stud pitcher losing his value to MLB.

Scouting Report:

Darvish throws a low-90s fastball (91-93 mph). At 21 years old, he is 6 foot 5 and under 180 lbs. which means he has the potential to add weight and thereby add velocity.

He throws a plus knuckle curveball along with a sinker, slider, and changeup.

His 2007 season, which earned him the Japanese version of the Cy Young was spectacular:

1.82 ERA, 26 starts, 207 innings pitched, 123 hits, 210 strikeouts, 49 walks and 12 complete games. That works out to a k/bb of 4.29, a batting average against of .170 while averaging 8 innings pitched per start. Wow.