Carrol's Latest On Joba

Will Carrol's been working the phones since Joba Chamberlain went down with shoulder tendinitis in Texas and posted his latest analysis today at Baseball Prospectus. By all accounts, it seems as though Chamberlain is well on his way back - regardless of what Abraham's pessimism says over at Lohud.

The idea will be to work Joba back into the rotation the same way which was implemented the first go-round - in other words use him in relief until his arm strength allows him to start again. This is an especially smart move because the minor league season will soon be over and therefore take away the chance for him to rehab down there.

Carrol's thoughts:

Things looked good for Chamberlain when he got back up on the mound in the latest in a series of throwing sessions. The news has been more about shifting him back to the pen than it has about the success of his steady but slow return. There are a couple of factors that appear to be pushing him to relief work, none of them having anything to do with the injury. First is the impending end of the minor league season, making it tougher to send him down for a rehab start, and secondly the Yankees have chosen a more advanced approach to pitching management, something that has allowed them to transition Chamberlain from the pen to the rotation in the first place. Think of this as the same sort of transition, allowing him to build up stamina at the major league level while controlling his innings. The media and less-informed fans might panic, but in the end the Yankees have one starter who should be established enough for them to build around for 2009 and beyond.

As much as I enjoy a rotation built around Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, for some reason Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be a bit more exciting come September.

*** Humberto Sanchez has been promoted to Tampa and pitched one scoreless inning Monday night.

*** Ian Kennedy struck out another nine batters over six innings, allowing two runs on four hits. Over his last two starts IPK has punched out 18 batters over just 11 innings while walking just three. As you've read here [probably too many times], Kennedy needs to refine his curveball if he's going to be successful in the bigs. And that's what he's been doing during his latest foray into the minor leagues. Hence the big strikeout totals.

Hughes Coming On Quick,Adds New Pitch

Though his command could use a little greater consistency, Phil Hughes again pitched well in his first AAA start of 2008, tossing 68 pitches [40 for strikes] through 4.2 innings and allowing one earned run on three hits. Hughes is slated for 85 pitches during his next start Tuesday in Pawtucket.

More importantly, Phil's stuff appears to be back in the electric category as it is again being reported that he was hitting the mid-90s consistently with his fastball. Also, according to Chad Jennings, Hughes has added a cut-fastball to his arsenal which was around 87-89 mph [that's replaced a mediocre slider] and tossed a handful of changeups.

Here's what my boy Dan Graziano reported as he was on assignment in Scranton tonight:

A scout who's here tonight said the scoreboard radar gun at this park can fluctuate unreliably. According to this guy's gun, Hughes' fastball was in the 94-95 mph range in the first three innings and then in the 91-93 range thereafter. The scout also said Hughes' curveball looked good, and that his slider sometimes looked a little more like a cutter, which he speculated was probably unintentional and a result of rust.

If you haven't already read the Baseball Prospectus report from Phil's last rehab start in Charleston, it's pretty obvious that BP and the scouts in attendance that night were thoroughly impressed with where Hughes' stuff was at:

Philip Hughes, RHP, Low-A Charleston (Yankees)
Technically, he's not really a prospect any more, but he's still a young unproven player. Based on what Hughes showed on Saturday, though, he could be a factor in the post-season race. Once the top pitching prospect in the game, Hughes made his second rehab appearance since coming back from a rib injury, absolutely dominating Sally League hitters on Saturday, allowing one hit in 3 2/3 shutout innings while striking out five. More important was how good Hughes' stuff was, as his fastball sat in the low 90s and consistently touched 94-95—the kind of velocity he showed frequently in the minors, but rarely with the Yanks. While neither he nor Ian Kennedy have played the expected roles at the big-league level this year, they both might come September.

Mr. Hughes looks like he's back in the building which begs the question: has Hughes reverted back to the mechanics he used in 2006? I sure hope it is the case as I've already heard rumors Phil is back to the more athletic 3/4 armslot he began with as opposed to the more over-the-top delivery he'd been using of late. If you want to read a longwinded discussion of Phil's mechanics and velocity issues, feel free to check out this post from last year.

Hughes Hits Triple Digits?I Think Not, But...

Phil Hughes captured the imagination of Yankees fans everywhere when, during his most recent rehab outing for Charleston, the 22 year-old starting pitcher alledgedly hit 101 mph with his fastball.

Although it was reported Hughes touched triple digits while in high school, his typical velocity will range from 91-94mph and touch the mid-90s when he dials it up.

Though the Charleston announcer reported that the stadium radar gun had been checked in between innings and was supposedly accurate, it doesn't take a whole lot of thinking before realizing the gun was juiced.

I felt like the gun was, in all probability, running approximately 4 mph too high which still means Philerup is touching 97 mph. Knocking off the same 4 mph would have had Carl Pavano [who started the game] throwing 88-89 mph, which makes sense considering this is just his second start back coming off of TJ surgery.

Some in the area have told me that the radar gun was probably about 5 mph higher than reality, meaning Hughes was essentially throwing 92-95 mph and topping out at 96 mph. Which was supported by Brian Cashman, who, while appearing on TBS during today's game, said Hughes was hitting 95 mph during last night's outing.

Let the Phil Hughes velocity obsession saga continue. Just don't think that he'll hit 100mph any time soon, unless the RHP bought a Porsche 911 and feels like dragging on the NJ Tpke.

***
After going to Friday's game and leaving with a heartwrenching 1-0 loss at the hands of Mariano Rivera [and his inability to pitch in a tie game this year], today was an enormous game and split for the Yankees.

By the way, here are Rivera's 2008 stats:

Non-save situations: 3.00 ERA, 21 IP, 18 hits, 7 ER, 25 K's, 3 HR
Vs.. Save situations: 0.33 ERA, 27.1 IP, 12 hits, 1 ER, 33 K's, 0 HR

Horne Survives Spring Start

Alan Horne, the top Yankees pitching prospect recovering from a bicep strain, pitched two scoreless innings today in an Extended Spring Training game. He threw some 26 pitches and is slated to get in another game on Thursday with a goal of upping his pitchcount to 50.

Though no timetable is currently set in stone, it is altogether possible Horne rejoins the AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre rotation in a week. Horne provides another starting pitching option or trading chip for Brian Cashman to plug in.

Meanwhile... Jeff Karstens will start tonight for Scranton after pitching in Tampa of late. Karstens has been working his way back from a groin injury suffered in early Spring and could ultimately find his way into a longman role in turnoverville the Yankees bullpen.