Carrol's Latest On Joba

Will Carrol's been working the phones since Joba Chamberlain went down with shoulder tendinitis in Texas and posted his latest analysis today at Baseball Prospectus. By all accounts, it seems as though Chamberlain is well on his way back - regardless of what Abraham's pessimism says over at Lohud.

The idea will be to work Joba back into the rotation the same way which was implemented the first go-round - in other words use him in relief until his arm strength allows him to start again. This is an especially smart move because the minor league season will soon be over and therefore take away the chance for him to rehab down there.

Carrol's thoughts:

Things looked good for Chamberlain when he got back up on the mound in the latest in a series of throwing sessions. The news has been more about shifting him back to the pen than it has about the success of his steady but slow return. There are a couple of factors that appear to be pushing him to relief work, none of them having anything to do with the injury. First is the impending end of the minor league season, making it tougher to send him down for a rehab start, and secondly the Yankees have chosen a more advanced approach to pitching management, something that has allowed them to transition Chamberlain from the pen to the rotation in the first place. Think of this as the same sort of transition, allowing him to build up stamina at the major league level while controlling his innings. The media and less-informed fans might panic, but in the end the Yankees have one starter who should be established enough for them to build around for 2009 and beyond.

As much as I enjoy a rotation built around Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, for some reason Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be a bit more exciting come September.

*** Humberto Sanchez has been promoted to Tampa and pitched one scoreless inning Monday night.

*** Ian Kennedy struck out another nine batters over six innings, allowing two runs on four hits. Over his last two starts IPK has punched out 18 batters over just 11 innings while walking just three. As you've read here [probably too many times], Kennedy needs to refine his curveball if he's going to be successful in the bigs. And that's what he's been doing during his latest foray into the minor leagues. Hence the big strikeout totals.

Joba Expects To Pitch This Month

I hope the Yankees are being as cautious as I expect them to be, but if Joba Chamberlain is indeed correct, it's great news that "The Hutt" could rejoin the Yankees rotation by late August - at which time he, alongside Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy could be celebrating a Generation Trey reunion.

Isn't it ironic how the Yankees will, in all likelihood, begin and end the season relying heavily on Hughes and IPK as rotation stalwarts.

Ed Price of the Star Ledger is reporting Chamberlain will likely miss a month, though he cites Yankees anonymous sources who call the injury "minor" and even says the injury was actually to his "biceps tendon" and not the rotator cuff.

From the ESPN article:

Joba Chamberlain plans to start a throwing program next week and expects to rejoin the New York Yankees' rotation this month.

"I'll be throwing in a week. I'll probably throw the beginning of next week," Chamberlain said Friday when he arrived at the Yankees' spring training complex. "Everything feels fine now."

[Chamberlain] never thought the problem was serious.

"No. Not at all," Chamberlain said. "It would have been different if I wasn't still throwing 99 [mph]. It was a different feeling that I never had, so I just wanted to make sure."

When asked if he would be ready to start again for the Yankees by Sept. 1, Chamberlain said "I'll throw way before that in a game."

Alrighty then. Yankees docs, let's try and do your due diligence on this one. I don't want the same brilliant minds who allowed the Mets' Ryan Church to play through concussion symptoms going near Mr. Chamberlain. I'd rather the Yankees play it safe with Chamberlain and thereby risk the 2008 playoffs, then take any chance on Chamberlain's shoulder and thereby risk the next decade.

If Joba is really suffering from the common malady of "shoulder tendinitis," then it does not make a difference if he rests for the next week or the next three months. As long as the inflammation subsides and his shoulder is properly restrengthened, there isn't any reason Joba can't return from this injury rather quickly.

Again, that is if the Yankees brass is offering the public an honest diagnosis and isn't playing the cloak and dagger games they have in the past.

Carrol's Initial Diagnosis On Joba Looks Positive

Will Carrol, the injury savant, offers his take on the Joba Chamberlain injury:

The early word is that his muscle tightened up due to a combination of the blistering heat (I sat in that heat the night before, and yeah, it's a huge factor) and fatigue. It's the latter that's most worrisome given Chamberlain's switch of roles. While he built up his arm strength, no one has any idea how the fatigue will be affected by the shape of his season. He's headed back to New York for tests, so we'll know more soon, but early reports and sources tell me that things look relatively positive, based both on the pain's location, and on his reaction. Expect the Yanks to be ultra-conservative, and for Chamberlain to miss a start at least.

Hat tip to the man, Alex of BronxBanter.

Where'd All Those People GoWho Wanted Joba In The Pen?

You don't waste your best arm in one-inning relief.

Joba Chamberlain has thrown 18.1 innings since becoming a starting pitcher for the Yankees. Over that period, he has 19 strikeouts, 14 hits allowed and a 2.45 ERA. Considering the fact that today was the first time Chamberlain had been giving a full slate of pitches to work with, it would appear the "Chamberlain belongs in the pen" crowd have meekly scurried off to their holes.

Excluding two intentional walks, Chamberlain has handed out 10 free passes to the 19 punchouts he's issued as a starter. Although he needs to bring down his walk rate, Chamberlain's superior strikeout ability and overall stuff covers up that wart nicely. This fact was emboldened today when Chamberlain escaped a bases loaded, zero-out jam without allowing a single run to score.

I guess that second inning situation would be better suited for Dan Giese - because Joba belongs in the eighth inning, even when there's no lead to protect. Had Giese or Rasner worked himself into similar trouble, the Yankees may have been pondering a 3-2 loss - their first in six games. Instead, Chamberlain refused to let in a run and a 2-1 victory kept a seven game winning streak alive.

As I stated when the transition to the rotation was first announced, Chamberlain's only big problem in the minors was conserving his pitches and remaining economical, which was somewhat evidenced today. Had he been on a longer leash, Chamberlain would have likely completed six innings of one-run ball and earned the W. Chamberlain is 22 years old and he will eventually learn to manage his pitchcount more effectively and do a better job of holding runners on.

In the mean time, however, a few poitns have been proven true:

1) Joba has frontline stuff.
2) That stuff is maintained deep into games.
3) He has the repertoire of five pitches [fastball, sinker, slider, curve, change] to succeed as a starter

So we will continue to wait for Fatso & Fruit Loops to admit they were wrong on this particular topic. I won't hold my breath, though.

Reynolds No Like Joba Starting

Harold Reynolds - of Seattle Mariners and ESPN harassment fame - has his own blog now and what better way to drive traffic there than a post on why Joba Chamberlain needs to stay in the bullpen.

If you've ever visited BL before, you realize where I stand on the Chamberlain debate. Let's just say I believe it's harder for a team to find a Jake Peavy than it is to find a Guerillmo Mota. In other words, the top-line starter is much more rare and consistent than the dominant setup man who can fall of the face of the earth after a couple superb seasons.

Here's the latest kneejerk reaction to Joba's transition into the starting five:

When I first heard the Yankees were considering moving Joba Chamberlain to the starting rotation, I didn't like it. When it became official, I liked it even less! The end of a dynasty! Some might say that would be too extreme or maybe too harsh. Okay, how about: "The Yanks won't make the playoffs this season, ending a 12-year run."

Sorry Yankee fans, I know you don't want to hear it, but unless they can find someone to close the gap from the 6th inning on, and get the ball to Mariano Rivera, the streak will end.

To be fair, I've always been a Reynolds fan and thought Baseball Tonight took a big step back in his absence. However, as much as I agree Chamberlain shortened games in the Rivera-to-Wetteland vein, you just can't waste the best arm on your team in late inning relief.

And, should Joba prove to be a better reliever than starter it's not as if he will be locked out of the bullpen, he can always return as closer once Mariano Rivera rides off into the sunset. I doubt that would be necessary, but it's nice to know you have a lights out closer in waiting should the rotation plan falter.

Royals Diss Joba

According to a NY Post report, the Kansas City Royals were not impressed, much less intimidated, by Joba Chamberlain's electric stuff during his start Sunday afternoon.

"Nothing like we haven't faced before," leadoff man David DeJesus said...

DeJesus called Chamberlain "all right," saying, "Just a guy throwing hard."

Kansas City right fielder Mark Teahen praised Chamberlain's pitches but said that he was "more or less the same as he was as a reliever," adding, "Nothing special."

Yep. DeJesus and Teahen are the first hitters I think of when discussing dominance.

Joba Debut Lasts 2.1 Innings

Though the results were not superlative, Joba Chamberlain maintained his electric stuff thoroughout his brief major league starting debut Tuesday night. About a year ago I wrote that Chamberlain's velocity would still sit 94-98mph deep into games and most who have seen him start games in person would agree with that assessment.

Tonight was no different.

Throughout his mediocre outing, Chamberlain often hit the high 90's with his fastball and touched triple digits on the stadium gun a handful of times as well. According to MLB Gameday, 22 of Chamberlain's 45 fastballs were between 96-99 mph. Essentially, half of his fastballs were thrown in the upper 90's. The slider was biting, as was the curveball, but his command was understandably shaken as many youngsters feel nerves during their first start.

The four walks were somewhat redeemed by the solid three strikeouts tallied in less than three innings of work. The two runs allowed were aided by Dan Giese and a phantom balk, but were mostly caused by an uncharacteristic dispersement of free passes.

Columnist Dan Graziano of the Star Ledger had a straightforward recap of Joba's starting debut:

Nothing kills hype like reality, and Joba Chamberlain's first major-league start was a lot more fizzle than sizzle.

The Yankees' 22-year-old phenom tickled the Yankee Stadium radar gun at 100-plus mph five times in the first three innings of tonight's game. But a laborious first inning that required him to throw 38 pitches ensured a quick night. Manager Joe Girardi pulled Chamberlain from the game with one out in the third inning after he'd thrown just 62 pitches.

Incidentally, Mr. Graziano agreed to a brief interview with BL which should be up in the near future. Chamberlain's next scheduled start will be against Kansas City with an expected pitchcount of approximately 75-80 pitches.

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All Joba Chamberlain all the time:

Jayson Stark discusses Joba's transition with Curt Schilling and Tom Gordon - two pitchers who began in the big league bullpen before moving into the rotation. Orel Hershiser also give his two cents.

ESPN also has an Onion-esqe satirical piece on Joba's first start.

Yankees beatwriter Bryan Hoch gives his take.

A Star Ledger columnist looks into the Joba "hype machine."

Joba Will Start Tuesday At Home

Joba Chamberlain will make the first major league start of his career this Tuesday at home against Toronto. As luck would have it, Chamberlain draws Blue Jays ace, Roy Halliday, which will surely make it a tough test for the 22 year-old.

Reportedly, Chamberlain will be limited to 65-70 pitches Tuesday then move up to 75-80 pitches and 85-90 pitches in his next two starts.

[HT to Matt]

'King' Of Inaccuracy Says Joba Will Start Monday Or Tuesday

From the NY Post's George King comes the opinion that Joba Chamberlain's first career big league start will come on either Monday [at the Twins] or Tuesday [against Toronto].

As of late afternoon, Joe Girardi and Cashman were undecided whether Chamberlain would start Monday or Tuesday. Because Monday's game is against the Twins at the Metrodome and would provide a calmer setting than Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium against the Blue Jays, and because it would provide Andy Pettitte with an extra day of rest when he goes Tuesday, that seemed a stronger option.

Chamberlain would most likely be on a pitchcount of around 75 in either case.

Joba Has Decent Stuff

NoMaas.org beat me to the punch on this one... Because I missed an inning of Joba Chamberlain's outing last night I went back to MLB.com's Gameday option to see how his stuff was grading out. Suffice to say this screenshot shows how ridiculous Chamberlain's pitching repertoire can be:

Even if Joba throws only 95-97mph in the sixth inning instead of the 98-100mph he used in the bullpen role, I'm pretty sure he will still be difficult to hit.

Joba Getting Rocket Texts

Joba Chamberlain is getting text messages from Roger Clemens with advice on how to become a better major leaguer. No word on whether the texts contained a recipe for performance-enhancing-drugs.

Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain, who is making the transition from eighth-inning reliever to the rotation, says he is in touch with Clemens regularly.

“We text back and forth and I ask him a lot of questions, because that’s how you get better,” Chamberlain said before the Yankees’ game in Baltimore Tuesday night. “You can’t be afraid to ask questions. I ask him everything from workout questions to how to pitch to certain batters. I never thought I’d be texting Roger Clemens.”

...Chamberlain says he’s taking pieces of Clemens’ workout routine and incorporating them. One piece of advice Clemens gave him: “The easiest day should be the day you pitch,” Chamberlain says. “Then, I beat myself up in between starts. I run, lift, eat right and take care of myself between starts.”

Maybe Chamberlain should stick to pitching tips and leave the "workout questions" alone for now.

W.O.W.

What a horrendous loss. New York surrendered three straight leads of 4-0 and 8-4 and finally 9-8. The last two bullpen options to close the game were Jose Veras and someone who can't get lefties out.

To me, Veras was the choice as the upcoming inning called for three straight lefthanded hitters. However Joe Girardi calledup upon LaTroy Hawkins who will now have a new chant at Yankee Stadium: D-F-A.

Boy oh boy will the "Joba stays in the pen" crowd have a field day with this one.

Columnists Want Joba In Pen

Completely unsurprising in its uniformity, is the shared opinion of most baseball columnists that moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation is a mistake. Taking the George Washington Bridge at 4 o'clock could be a mistake as well, but if it's the smartest route toward your destination, how are you going to know unless you actually give it a shot.

Keeping Chamberlain in the bullpen this year means another wasted year in which Chamberlain hasn't thrown enough innings to become a fulltime starter next season. It's always funny to me to see those stubborn sports writers (not all of course) try out their crystal balls and pretend a setup man supercedes the contributions a frontine starter could offer.

It was especially enjoyable to hear one particular beat reporter contend the Yankees might have won yesterday had Joba been pitching and not Hawkins/Veras. Discard the fact that the Yankees were losing when the terrible twosome entered the ballgame, there have to be other relievers in the Yankees pen besides Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera. If New York was protecting a 1-0 lead in the eighth inning in which Hawkins and Vera's blew, there would have at least been a point to take seriously.

Newsflash, Joba To Become StarterGirardi: "The Process Has Started"

By July 1, a Nebraskan fireballer will be starting games every fifth day for the Yankees. As this blog and several other Yankee sites had been confidently asserting since spring training, Joba Chamberlain is to become a starting pitcher in 2008.

Now it's official as Joe Girardi told Kim Jones after the game, "The process has started."

It was pretty evident that the process had begun once Chamberlain threw four or five changeups in the two innings he pitched during an 8-0 blowout victory Wednesday night.

As soon as I saw the 80 mph radar readings and the solid fading downward movement of his change I knew Joba to the Rotation had begun. The only guy on the YES telecast not observant enough to recognize it was Michael Kay as John Flaherty and Singleton read the handwriting on the wall.

Mark Melancon and JB Cox and Dan McCutchen and Dave Robertson just got a whole lot closer to the majors - even though they currently remain at their respective AA and AAA levels.

It will be extremely entertaining to hear the NY radio talk circuit munch on this for hour after hour. It will be just as fun to see how clueless some of these personalities are regarding the minor league prospects moving towards the back of the bullpen.

Just a bit of advice. If any writer, radio host or ESPN analyst states names like Farnsworth or Hawkins as Joba's longterm replacement as the setup man feel free to disregard them as having any knowledge about baseball for the remainder of your sports-watching life.

Joba's Potential Replacements,Cox and Melancon Promoted

Two possible substitutes for Joba Chamberlain in the back of the Yankees bullpen, Mark Melancon and JB Cox, were each given a promotion to AA and AAA respectively.

Cox is the more advanced of the two, mostly because he has logged more professional innings before going down with his elbow injury. Melancon probably has the best stuff, however, and may have the better make-up to pitching in the eighth inning.

Whatever the case may be, both Cox and Melancon have the stuff and mentality to contribute to the Yankees big league pen this summer.

From the SWB Yanks blog:

The Yankees on Tuesday promoted J.B. Cox to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre...

Thanks to a text message good friend John Nalbone, is that Mark Melancon is taking Cox's place in Trenton. Melancon has been in Tampa where he's allowed one run in his past 13.1 innings. He's also walked two and struck out 15 in that span.

The Yankees brass just took another meaningful step toward inserting Chamberlain into the starting five.

Dellucci: Joba Antics Are 'Bush'

Shockingly, it looks like not everyone is as receptive to Joba Chamberlain's exuberance as Frank Thomas was:

“That’s what gets him going and that’s what everybody likes to see, but if a hitter was to do something like that they’d probably say it was ‘bush (league)’ and you shouldn’t do it,” Dellucci said. “It’s kind of funny how a pitcher can get away with it.”

..."It’s no disrespect to the hitter,” Chamberlain said. “It’s no disrespect to the game. It’s not like it’s the first time I’ve done it. That’s just who I am and that’s the way it’s gonna be.”

Dellucci, a 13-year veteran who played with the Yankees in 2003, has a more old-school approach.

“If he wants to yell and scream after a strikeout and dance around, I guess that gets him going,” Dellucci said. “My home run was in a much bigger situation, more a key part of the game and I didn’t dance around and scream.”

All fair points in my mind. However, if this type of emotion is a key cog in Chamberlain's mentality and approach while on the mound, it's doubtful the Yankees brass will request a ceasefire on the fist pump front. That is, until Yankees hitters start taking fastballs to the shoulder blade on a regular basis.

Sherman: Scouts: Joba Is A StarterNo *Bleep*

Today's Joel Sherman space in the NY Post cites several scouts who, like most of have been screaming from the get-go, believe Joba Chamberlain is a #1 type starting pitcher in the big leagues.

Scout A says:

The times I saw him, he was an easy-identification No. 1 starter. He was powerful and resilient. He went deep into games and used all four of his pitches. That is what impressed me most about him. He would strike out 2-3 guys in a row with a fastball, then go 2-2 and throw a plus-potential change.

I will tell you what I think on this kid. You put him in a playoff game, and when he leaves it is going to be 1-0 or 2-1. The score is going to be low for the other side. He was a dominant No. 1 guy in the minors. I left the stadium and said, "What else do you want in a starting pitcher?" I saw (Jonathan) Papelbon in the minors....Chamberlain as a starter was better than Papelbon. He had more options. He threw harder. Papelbon was 92-94 (mph) as a starter. His second pitches were all average.

Scout B says:

I thought he was the best player in the Yankees organization, the No. 1 prospect. He was lights out. He had a plus-fastball, nasty slider and a good curve, and a pitchable change. He held his stuff for seven innings. The thing that concerned me is there is a lot of effort in that delivery.

AA Reading Phillies Pitching Coach, Tom Filer says:

I was very impressed. The first couple of innings he was 94-96 (mph). By the fifth inning, he was 97-99. His slider was very impressive. I liked the action on his breaking ball. I only saw those two pitches, the fastball and slider. On this given day, we had no shot (against him). This guy can do anything. He might not be as refined as (Josh) Beckett the first time I saw him at 19 or 20 years old. But with Joba Chamberlain, I saw more power."

Scout C Says:

For me, he was a top-of-the-rotation guy. I have had a long-running debate in my head between Chamberlain and (Phil) Hughes. As far as stuff, I think I wrote him up as a No. 3 with upside. He pitched at 94-96 (mph). But the one thing is he threw seven innings and he maintained velocity. I saw him throw 98 in the seventh inning. He could step it up when he needed. I remember one time he was pitching at 94 and it was either the sixth or seventh inning and two guys got on with one out, and he did not throw another pitch at less than 97. [Chamberlain and Hughes] were both in my mind top-of-rotation guys without hesitation.

For me, he is a starter. There are a lot of guys who can do that set-up role.

Did Joba Diss Erin Andrews?

A conspiracy theory is making the email rounds today in which Joba Chamberlain is rumored to have muttered something to ESPN's Erin Andrews that resulted in an awkward gasface from the sideline siren.

To me, there is nothing to this, but you be the judge:



Andrews already responded to the controversy, explaining "I was looking over at my producer at the end, asking him what we needed to get next from him because I had to do another interview with him." Guess that solves Joba-gate, though it does make Ms. Andrews look pretty snobbish if her explanation is indeed correct.

BA Likes McCutchen, Robertson

Baseball America's John Manuel likes Trenton pitchers Daniel McCutchen and Dave Robertson to contribute toward the Yankees late-inning bullpen spot vacated when Joba Chamberlain moves to the rotation this summer.

From Wednesday's ESPN chat:

Matt (PA): Melancon, Cox, Sanchez or Horne.. Who gets that call up first for the Yankees once Joba hits the rotation? So I guess around the all-star break.

John Manuel: Good question, but there are many other options--David Robertson is a sleeper who could be a factor, he's dealing at Trenton right now. Also Dan McCutcheon, who is a starter but could slide into a relief role with his stuff and aggressive approach. I actually like both those guys better for a middle relief role this year than those you mentioned except for Melancon. If Melancon is at full strength, he's the guy. Sanchez and Cox won't help the Yankees in New York this year, IMO.

Now serving as Trenton's closer, the 23 year-old David Robertson has already thrown 14 innings compiling a 0.64 ERA and 21 K’s. In 2007, his first year of pro ball, he went 8-3 flashing an 0.96 ERA over 84 innings with 113 strikeouts and only 32 walks.

As the closer for Alabama it was said Robertson possessed a 95-96 mph blazing fastball, but in the minor leagues scouts soon realized his fastball was really 89-92. However, the explosive late-movement on his fastball is so dramatic that it seems to be 3 to 4 ticks higher. Hitters simply cannot catch up with his fastball which, at its best, runs 90-93 mph. He compliments his riding fastball with a hammer curve which is his outpitch.

Also, don't forget about Scott Patterson who has struggled a bit at AAA after being robbed of a major league roster spot out of Spring training. Jose Veras and his mid-90s fastball also remain in Scranton Wilkes-Barre where over 9 innings he has struck out 15, walked 3, notched 5 saves with a 2.00 ERA.