Carrol's Latest On Joba

Will Carrol's been working the phones since Joba Chamberlain went down with shoulder tendinitis in Texas and posted his latest analysis today at Baseball Prospectus. By all accounts, it seems as though Chamberlain is well on his way back - regardless of what Abraham's pessimism says over at Lohud.

The idea will be to work Joba back into the rotation the same way which was implemented the first go-round - in other words use him in relief until his arm strength allows him to start again. This is an especially smart move because the minor league season will soon be over and therefore take away the chance for him to rehab down there.

Carrol's thoughts:

Things looked good for Chamberlain when he got back up on the mound in the latest in a series of throwing sessions. The news has been more about shifting him back to the pen than it has about the success of his steady but slow return. There are a couple of factors that appear to be pushing him to relief work, none of them having anything to do with the injury. First is the impending end of the minor league season, making it tougher to send him down for a rehab start, and secondly the Yankees have chosen a more advanced approach to pitching management, something that has allowed them to transition Chamberlain from the pen to the rotation in the first place. Think of this as the same sort of transition, allowing him to build up stamina at the major league level while controlling his innings. The media and less-informed fans might panic, but in the end the Yankees have one starter who should be established enough for them to build around for 2009 and beyond.

As much as I enjoy a rotation built around Carl Pavano and Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner, for some reason Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would be a bit more exciting come September.

*** Humberto Sanchez has been promoted to Tampa and pitched one scoreless inning Monday night.

*** Ian Kennedy struck out another nine batters over six innings, allowing two runs on four hits. Over his last two starts IPK has punched out 18 batters over just 11 innings while walking just three. As you've read here [probably too many times], Kennedy needs to refine his curveball if he's going to be successful in the bigs. And that's what he's been doing during his latest foray into the minor leagues. Hence the big strikeout totals.

Sanchez Making Progress in GCL

Bronx, NY native Humberto Sanchez - like fellow organizational arms JB Cox and Mark Melancon - is making his way back from Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow.

Sanchez began his rehabilitation work for the GCL Yankees on June 24th, and has been very effective in [mind you] a very small sample size. Including yesterday's outting, Sanchez has now made seven appearances in the Gulf Coast League, and over those 6.2 innings-pitched he has allowed just one earned run on three hits while striking out nine and walking three.

The only run Sanchez has allowed thus far came during his first appearance on June 24th, the first time he'd pitched in a profressional game since 2006. According to a source, Sanchez is already throwing in the low-90s mph with his fastball and may soon again reach the mid-90s with his heater in the coming months.

Before his arm surgery, Sanchez complimented a bowling-ball heavy fastball with a filthy 12-6 curveball, power slider and serviceable changeup.

Humberto's surgery was performed by James Andrews on April 17th of last year which means he is exactly 15 months out of surgery. The standard recovery period cited for most pitchers is 12-18 months, with the latter being the expected time table for the pitcher to really feel his velocity, command and strength return.

With that said, the time table for Sanchez remains a big, fat question mark at this point as every athlete responds differently to the surgery. Therefore, any belief that he could contribute to the big club in 2008 currently seems unwarranted at this juncture.

However, Sanchez's last season of work saw him dominate AA hitters for the Tigers to the tune of a 1.76 ERA over 11 starts, with 86 strikeouts in 71.2 innings and allowing just 47 hits and 27 walks. Those are some serious numbers for a starting pitcher at the proving grounds of AA level baseball.

So, if his rehab were to continue at this rate without setback or incident, and he breezed through Tampa/Trenton as a reliever, a short stay at AAA might allow him to break into the majors in September. A lot of things have to go right, however, for that to occur.

Should the Yankees begin to stretch Sanchez out with the intent of keeping him as a starting pitcher, I would believe the chances of seeing Sanchez in the Bronx in '08 would then be nil.

The best plan for Sanchez this year and for the future is as a potential closer or setup man as it will play up an already dangerous pitching arsenal and keep his innings count down which should help him avoid another injury. Whatever the case may be, Sanchez will be an entertaining prospect to watch in person if he hits the northeast later this Summer.

An Humberto Sighting

Humberto Sanchez pitching in a real live game? Hold the phone.

That's right. The overweight Bronx native with the million dollar arm has finally made it back to the mound and pitched this afternoon for the GCL Yankees.

The results weren't great, but they're also meaningless. For the next month or so, the sole objective for Sanchez [like Cox and Melancon early on this year] is to pile up innings. As the innings increase, so will his velocity, command and strength.

As those factors return to their pre-surgery levels, the results will undoubtedly follow. I still find it hard to believe Sanchez has enough time left in the season to make his way to the bigs.

Dellin Betances pitched in the same GCL game and had a poor showing as well by tossing 2 innings and allowing three runs on four hits. As is the case with any pitcher returning from a shoulder injury, the focus remains on regaining his strength and comfort.

Horne, Sanchez Take Another Step

Alan Horne continues to make his way back from a bicep strain by tossing nearly six innings and reportedly could join the Scranton Wilkes-Barre rotation as soon as next week.

Since his injury on April 10th, Horne has gradually passed every test thrown at him and now finds himself with a high enough pitchcount to again knock on the big league door:

Horne threw 5.2 innings on 77 pitches today in extended spring training and said he expects to rejoin the Triple-A rotation this week.

According to his father, Horne had good command and bite on his curveball and slider. He allowed three or four hits, struck out 7 and only walked the last hitter he faced when [again, according to his father] Horne was losing his leg strength in the 97 degree heat.

Meanwhile, another power prospect - Humberto Sanchez - has been working his way back from Tommy John surgery and will soon be pitching to live batters. His armstrength has been built up to about 40-45 pitches.

Though the Yankees have yet to say anything official regarding Sanchez's role, it's widely believed he will break into the Yankees farm system as a late inning reliever.

I, myself and many other prospect watchers believe this is the right gameplan for an often injury ridden pitcher who possesses closer stuff. For me, Sanchez's ETA remains September, though that is simply an estimate on a very fickle athlete and injury recovery period.

Hughes Has A Blog,Sanchez Calls It A Comeback

· Apparently, Phil Hughes started his own weblog. It will be interesting to see a young star's take on life in Major League Baseball; though most fans are more excited by the prospect of Phil-er-up remaining a Yankee for the next 15 years or so. It'll probably be like 38Pitches . . . but without the pretentious, annoying, egocentric tone.

And, as if Phil could escape his inextricable link to Johan Santana, here is the latest Hank Steinbrenner spiel. This one comes from Minneapolis and has the new Boss reiterating that he makes the final decision. Somewhere Hal Steinbrenner is chuckling to himself, "Keep telling yourself that, Hanky."

· Here is a good piece on Humberto Sanchez and his recovery from TJ surgery. He is also trying to prove wrong the countless critics who believe Sanchez will never live up to his potential due to conditioning and health shortcomings.

From MiLB.com:

"My goal is just to be 100 percent by the end of April, a year out from the surgery," he said. "My dream goal would be to be in New York by the All-Star break, but a lot of things come into it -- if they need someone there [and] my performance at that point."

With Yankee Stadium entering its final year, there is more incentive than ever for Sanchez to complete his rehab and make it to the big leagues this season.

"Oh, it's definitely been on my mind," he said. "Especially [after] getting married and having a baby. I'd like to have Jennifer come to a game at the old Yankee Stadium; she's never been there before. And my baby. And my family."

As a lifelong Yankees fan and Bronx native, Humberto has all the motivation in the world to prove himself to be the dominant pitching prospect he's been touted as for the past three years.

· Buster Olney believes the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins should all pass on a Santana trade before the regular season... and revisit a potential deal as the trading deadline approaches. From ESPN:

If you've ever watched the show "Deal Or No Deal," you kind of get an idea of the situation Minnesota general manager Bill Smith is in, as he decides when to swap Johan Santana.

The million-dollar deal is off the table. It's not happening. Quite simply, Smith is not going to get a deal as good as the deal that Oakland got for Dan Haren. Because Santana is eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees is willing to give up the boatload of young players that Smith really wanted for the two-time Cy Young Award winner, while paying Santana a $125-$150 million extension.

So if you are Smith, what do you do? Do you take a subpar deal? Or do you simply go to spring training and prepare to start the season with Santana?

If I was in Smith's shoes, I'd keep Santana. Because to trade him would be to forgo the opportunity to contend in 2008, when the Twins have a chance to be a good team, with Francisco Liriano returning, with Joe Nathan closing, with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young hitting in the middle of their lineup.

That makes sense to me Busta.

· Erik Bedard to the Mariners is reportedly "one player away," according to Ken Rosenthal. The one player, however, is Chris Tillman, a 19 year-old pitching prospect which Seattle does not intend on parting with.

SWB Blog Revisits Top Prospects List

Chad Jennings revisited Deric McKamey's prospect list with an interview contending Humberto Sanchez is obviously best suited as a reliever, Jose Tabata is currently the superior prospect to Austin Jackson and George Kontos is underrated.

During the first piece, Jennings posted McKamey's top 15 prospects in the Yankees organization. Rankings of note included Dellin Betances at #7, Sanchez at #9, Kevin Whelan at #11 and Kontos at #12.

The rankings of these four prospects - which I agree with - have dropped on the lists of several other prospect outlets like Baseball America and John Sickels.

I chose a few highlights from the lengthy interview:

Is Humberto Sanchez's rating as a starting pitcher? Would it be any different assuming he was going to the bullpen?

Even though the Yankees haven’t made a definitive decision on Sanchez’ role, his rating is based on him becoming a reliever. The TJS not-withstanding, I feel he doesn’t change speeds well and his arm action has some recoil at the finish, which may always present stamina problems.

A move to the bullpen should preserve his arm and since he can focus on his fastball and two solid breaking pitches, he should do very well in that role.

What should we make of the long list of prospect relievers (Melancon, Cox, Whelan, Robertson, and Sanchez)? What role do you see those guys filling in the big leagues?

Sanchez, Whelan, and Melancon are the better arms of this group and all three have the goods to close in the right situation. Sanchez was discussed earlier. Whelan, despite being used as a starter in 2007, projects as a reliever for me. He has a very nasty splitter and exceptional movement to his 88-94 MPH fastball. His command can be erratic at times, but he misses bats easily.

Melancon missed the 2007 season with TJS, but his recovery has gone well and is expected to be ready for spring training. He throws hard (90-95 MPH) and can notch strikeouts too, but relies more on groundball outs than Sanchez and Whelan. He utilizes a curveball as his secondary pitch. He didn’t possess much of a change-up prior to his surgery and being that pitch is a “feel” pitch, I wonder how long it will take for him to get it to the average level, especially if the Yankees alter his mechanics, which was reported.

Cox is coming off of TJS and because he doesn’t have anything to offer LH batters, his upside is that of a setup reliever. Robertson is a short (height-wise) reliever with a deceptively quick fastball and two solid comps (curveball and change-up). Despite his ability to miss bats and command the plate at both Class-A levels, he projects as a setup reliever as well.

Which Yankees prospect do you like more than most analysts and which do you like less?

I like George Kontos better than most, ranking him #12 on my top 15 list. Kontos has shown excellent command, along with the ability to notch strikeouts and keep the ball low at every level he has pitched at. He throws hard (89-94 MPH) with two and four-seam fastballs, has a solid slider, and changes speeds well. He does have a tendency to overthrow which flattens his pitches and can make him hittable at times.

Finally, two pitchers I've been hesitant to get too high on: Jeff Marquez and George Kontos. You obviously like them. Why?

Kontos, I talked about earlier, but what I like about Marquez is his smooth/quick arm action, which gives him excellent pitch movement. He can touch 95 MPH, but hasn’t been able to hold it deep into games. He did pitch 155.1 innings, which alleviated any stamina concerns, but I feel he could add some strength to help him maintain his velocity. Both of his secondary offerings (curveball and change-up) are at least Major League average and he knows how to pitch.

Good stuff on Kontos, but I would have liked to have seen more thoughts on Melancon and Horne. I support the contention that Gardner is a good potential fourth outfielder, but not much more.

And, after seeing Juan Miranda several times last year at Trenton, McKamey is accurate in marginalizing the Cuban defector as a hitter without a glove. He looked more like Pele than Mattingly booting balls around the infield last season.

Meanwhile... the Yankees offer

According to Jack Curry of the NY Times, the Yankees have offered Minnesota a package of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and one more minor leaguer. Curry speculates it could be Jose Tabata, but speculation is all that it is.

The Yankees have offered pitcher Ian Kennedy, center fielder Melky Cabrera and at least one minor league prospect, perhaps outfielder José Tabata. In the trade discussions, the Yankees have told the Twins that pitcher Joba Chamberlain is untouchable and that they do not want to deal pitcher Phil Hughes.

Because the Twins are insisting that Hughes must be a part of the package, the Yankees are mulling whether to make that concession. If the Yankees insert Hughes for Kennedy in their offer, they think it could be enough to obtain Santana. Of course, the Yankees, or any team that reached an agreement with the Twins, would then have the challenging task of signing Santana to a huge six- or seven-year contract in a 72-hour window.

In my speculation, a package beginning with IPK and Melky would also need another position piece and another high level prospect which would very likely mean Alan Horne or Humberto Sanchez.

* Jorge wants Santana in pinstripes.