Monday, June 30, 2008

What To Expect From Gardner

SPEED
Brett Gardner is a legitimate burner on the basepaths - he already has 34 stolen bases and 59 runs scored at AAA. His speed ranks as an 80 on the scouting scale [which ranges from 20-80]. Basically, Gardner has gamebreaking speed and should showcase it during a 3-game series against Rangers catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

BAT
While Gardner's hitting prowess is a major topic of debate amongst prospect watchers, there is no arguing his plate discipline and patience. His .412 OBP this year is a testament to his ability to work counts, find a pitch to hit or take his walks. Essentially, Gardner can do whatever it takes to get on base - a great sign from a potential leadoff batter.

Where Gardner's power projects in the majors is tough to say. Most say he has gap power, but I would call it more of gap+ power in that he can turn around on an inside fastball with more conviction than most might think. That said, he won't be putting balls over the right field short porch with regularity like, say, Johnny Damon can.

GLOVE

Gardner is not as polished an outfielder as say Aaron Rowand, but he has that same tenacity and gritty approach to the game. It comes out most clearly in his fielding. You won't see any Bobby Abreu type plays at the warning track - in other words, if making a catch in centerfield means cracking his head into a fence [like Rowand], there will be no hesitation. As is the case with his baserunning, Gardner's speed allows him to get to balls that other fielders cannot. He takes good routes to flyballs in the gap, but his instincts are not elite.

ARM

Gardner's arm is not a cannon in center, and is probably just about average in left tonight, but he has a good enough arm to play in the middle of the outfield and is very accurate as well. There will be no confusing Gardner with Melky in that regard, so that will be something to keep an eye on should Gardner ever supplant Cabrera.

Here's a bit on Gardner's 2007 accolades taken from MinorLeagueBaseball.com:
Over the last two seasons, [Gardner] has successfully stolen a base in 83.6 percent of his tries (97-for-116)...led all Yankees Minor Leaguers in stolen bases and tied for the Thunder team lead with five triples...successfully stole a base in 21-of-24 attempts with Scranton/WB...

following the season, was named to the 2007 Arizona Fall League Top Prospects Team after hitting safely in 24-of-26 contests with the Peoria Javelinas...led the AFL in stolen bases (16) and runs scored (27) while ranking second in hits (37), tying for third in walks (17), and placing fourth in on-base percentage (.433) and fifth in batting average (.343).
That two season stolen base percentage of 83.6 is an excellent indicator of Gardner's breakaway speed and great instincts in base thievery.

18 comments:

logan69 said...

Not to change the subject, but MLB Trade Rumors reports that the Marlins are looking for a catcher and right handed pitcher, one of which is LaTroy Hawkins. Can anyone say Cameron Maybin

Anonymous said...

I'd do Tabata/Cervelli/Hawkins for Maybin. I don't know if it'd work though.

logan69 said...

I would give up Tabata/Hawkins and Shelly Duncan.

Anonymous said...

Shelley Duncan can't hit.

logan69 said...

That's right, we should get rid of him. The marlins could probably use him in the outfield or work with him.

Bronx Liaison said...

I appreciate the thoughts guys, but you'd have to give a lot more to get Cameron Maybin. Remember they gave up Miguel Cabrera basically for Maybin..

He is currently slugging .471 with 12 homeruns, 12 doubles and 17 stolen bases already at AA. His batting average is down, but he still has a respectable .361 OBP for a kid who just turned 21.

He is an elite prospect..much like an Adam Jones. You'd have to match up either some high ceiling prospects or very solid youngsters who are close or at the big league level.

logan69 said...

Alright, how is this: Hawkins, Marquez, Tabata & Ramirez or Christian. They would get three MLB ready players & two pretty good prospects in AAA.

Bronx Liaison said...

IMO you would have to sub in McCutchen for Marquez but that's not a bad proposal..

So it would be McCutchen, Tabata and Ramirez [or Hawkins].. but this is all probably moot because I doubt Florida would even think of trading a 21 y/o cost controlled player like Maybin..

I'd love to have him in a corner outfield spot though. Interestingly enough, Tabata is starting to heat up of late and considing he is more than a year younger than Maybin [but both are at AA] it may be wise to be patient with Tabby.

Bronx Liaison said...

Plus, if I'm trading Tabata this year, it's for a frontline starter like Saba ONLY..

Anonymous said...

What about Abe Almonte, Romine, Mccutchen, Ramirez for Maybin. Not ML ready enough or what?

Bronx Liaison said...

Personally I think it's a good deal for both sides, but the Marlins probably desire more proven prospects than that twosome.

Almonte and Romine have great potential and I like them a lot as prospects, but they are both in Low-A ball and have proven next to nothing yet in professional ball - [particularly Romine out of high school as Almonte at least is in his second year of pro ball]..

Neither one of those have the type of raw ability which Betances, Montero, McAllister or Heredia have already displayed at a very young age.

Anonymous said...

Damnit logan, now I can't forget about Maybin. You shouldn't have said anything....

What about Horne/Mccutchen/Cervelli. It's a real nice package.

logan69 said...

sorry. I just like him ever since I saw him last year against the yankees.

Bronx Liaison said...

haaha no problem.. I think he's a special player as well.

Anon: I agree that's a nice package, but I think they want someone closer to the bigs and Cervelli's been hurt for some time now.

logan69 said...

I think that Hawkins, McCutcheon, Almonte & Eric Duncan (since Shelley is now hurt)could work?

Bronx Liaison said...

Again you're subbing quantity for quality and that won't work especially for a stingy trade partner like the Marlins.

If I was Florida looking to get a haul for Maybin [and again barring a drug arrest or character flaw I don't know why they would], I would ask for Tabata, E-Ram/Hawkins and Austin Romine to start.

Dependent on whether they are looking for a "now" catcher or a future star backstop, they might ask for Tabata and Montero to start.

Steep? Of course, but they can afford to be if they're the ones selling..

Anonymous said...

It's too bad we'll have to wait for Upton until 2014.

Anonymous said...

I got it.

Either Melky Cabrera, Horne, McCutchen, E-Ram.

OR Brett Gardner, Horne, McCutchen, E-Ram.